OBJECTIVES: We investigated which variables independently associated with protection against or development of postendoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) and severity of PEP. Subsequently, we derived predictive risk models for PEP. METHODS: In a case-control design, 6505 patients had 8264 ERCPs, 211 patients had PEP, and 22 patients had severe PEP. We randomly selected 348 non-PEP controls. We examined 7 established- and 9 investigational variables. RESULTS: In univariate analysis, 7 variables predicted PEP: younger age, female sex, suspected sphincter of Oddi dysfunction (SOD), pancreatic sphincterotomy, moderate-difficult cannulation (MDC), pancreatic stent placement, and lower Charlson score. Protective variables were current smoking, former drinking, diabetes, and chronic liver disease (CLD, biliary/transplant complications). Multivariate analysis identified seven independent variables for PEP, three protective (current smoking, CLD-biliary, CLD-transplant/hepatectomy complications) and 4 predictive (younger age, suspected SOD, pancreatic sphincterotomy, MDC). Pre- and post-ERCP risk models of 7 variables have a C-statistic of 0.74. Removing age (seventh variable) did not significantly affect the predictive value (C-statistic of 0.73) and reduced model complexity. Severity of PEP did not associate with any variables by multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: By using the newly identified protective variables with 3 predictive variables, we derived 2 risk models with a higher predictive value for PEP compared to prior studies.
OBJECTIVES: We investigated which variables independently associated with protection against or development of postendoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) and severity of PEP. Subsequently, we derived predictive risk models for PEP. METHODS: In a case-control design, 6505 patients had 8264 ERCPs, 211 patients had PEP, and 22 patients had severe PEP. We randomly selected 348 non-PEP controls. We examined 7 established- and 9 investigational variables. RESULTS: In univariate analysis, 7 variables predicted PEP: younger age, female sex, suspected sphincter of Oddi dysfunction (SOD), pancreatic sphincterotomy, moderate-difficult cannulation (MDC), pancreatic stent placement, and lower Charlson score. Protective variables were current smoking, former drinking, diabetes, and chronic liver disease (CLD, biliary/transplant complications). Multivariate analysis identified seven independent variables for PEP, three protective (current smoking, CLD-biliary, CLD-transplant/hepatectomy complications) and 4 predictive (younger age, suspected SOD, pancreatic sphincterotomy, MDC). Pre- and post-ERCP risk models of 7 variables have a C-statistic of 0.74. Removing age (seventh variable) did not significantly affect the predictive value (C-statistic of 0.73) and reduced model complexity. Severity of PEP did not associate with any variables by multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: By using the newly identified protective variables with 3 predictive variables, we derived 2 risk models with a higher predictive value for PEP compared to prior studies.
Authors: B Joseph Elmunzer; James M Scheiman; Glen A Lehman; Amitabh Chak; Patrick Mosler; Peter D R Higgins; Rodney A Hayward; Joseph Romagnuolo; Grace H Elta; Stuart Sherman; Akbar K Waljee; Aparna Repaka; Matthew R Atkinson; Gregory A Cote; Richard S Kwon; Lee McHenry; Cyrus R Piraka; Erik J Wamsteker; James L Watkins; Sheryl J Korsnes; Suzette E Schmidt; Sarah M Turner; Sylvia Nicholson; Evan L Fogel Journal: N Engl J Med Date: 2012-04-12 Impact factor: 91.245
Authors: David A Hanauer; Danny T Y Wu; Lei Yang; Qiaozhu Mei; Katherine B Murkowski-Steffy; V G Vinod Vydiswaran; Kai Zheng Journal: J Biomed Inform Date: 2017-01-25 Impact factor: 6.317
Authors: Matthew J DiMagno; Erik-Jan Wamsteker; Jennifer Maratt; Mari A Rivera; Joshua P Spaete; Darren D Ballard; Joseph Elmunzer; Sameer D Saini Journal: Pancreas Date: 2014-05 Impact factor: 3.327