Cumulative risk for AIDS and other HIV outcomes in a cohort of hemophiliacs in western Pennsylvania.

The role of age on the risk of developing AIDS and on survival once AIDS occurs was studied in a cohort of HIV(+) hemophiliacs (n = 84), on whom HIV seroconversion dates and clinical endpoints were known. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of the proportion developing AIDS were 12, 28, and 49% by 4, 6, and 7 1/2 years' duration of infection, respectively. The proportion developing AIDS by 6 years after infection was estimated to be 49, 24, and 5% for those greater than 30 years of age at seroconversion, between 18 and 30, and 18 and under, respectively (p less than 0.002). The proportion estimated to have a fatal outcome by 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 years after AIDS diagnosis was 64, 76, and 88%, respectively, for those over 40 at seroconversion, which was significantly greater than 33, 48, and 81, respectively, for those less than or equal to 40 (p less than 0.01). In conclusion, (a) nearly half of this cohort is estimated to develop AIDS by 7 1/2 years' duration of infection, and (b) older age is associated with significantly shorter time to AIDS and shorter survival once AIDS occurs.