| Literature DB >> 23519020 |
Jodi J L Rowley1, Ross A Alford.
Abstract
Environmental context strongly affects many host-pathogen interactions, but the underlying causes of these effects at the individual level are usually poorly understood. The amphibian chytrid fungus has caused amphibian population declines and extinctions in many parts of the world. Many amphibian species that have declined or have been extirpated by the pathogen in some environments coexist with it in others. Here we show that in three species of rainforest frogs in nature, individuals' probability of infection by the amphibian chytrid fungus was strongly related to their thermal history. Individuals' probability of infection declined rapidly as they spent more time above the pathogen's upper optimum temperature. This relationship can explain population-level patterns of prevalence in nature, and suggests that natural or artificial selection for higher thermal preferences could reduce susceptibility to this pathogen. Similar individual-level insights could improve our understanding of environmental context-dependence in other diseases.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2013 PMID: 23519020 PMCID: PMC3604863 DOI: 10.1038/srep01515
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.379
Figure 1Individual probability of infection by the amphibian chytrid skin fungus and individual thermal history in nature.
(a) Prevalence of Bd infection in tracked frogs by species and gender and by season. Bars represent binomial (Clopper-Pearson) 95% confidence limits. (b) Boxplots illustrating distribution of percent of frog body temperatures above 25°C by species and gender and by season. Heavy bars represent medians, boxes represent 25% and 75% quartile boundaries, whiskers represent ranges, and stars are points outside 1.5× the interquartile range from the nearest quartile boundary. Comparing (a) and (b) suggests an inverse relationship between prevalence and percent of body temperatures above 25°C; this relationship was explored statistically in the models presented in Table 2.
Analysis of variance for the effects of species, gender (sex) and season (cold, dry or warm, wet, season) on individual thermal history, measured as proportion of individual body temperatures that were above 25°C
| Effect | SS | df | MS | F | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Species | 0.740 | 2 | 0.370 | 41.262 | <0.001 |
| Sex | 0.125 | 1 | 0.125 | 4.461 | 0.037 |
| Season | 3.962 | 1 | 3.962 | 141.107 | <0.001 |
| Error | 2.920 | 97 | 0.028 |
Logistic regression models evaluated as possible fits to infection status (0 = infected, 1 = uninfected) of tracked frogs. All possible one, two, and three-variable main-effects only models involving species identity (Species), gender of the individual (Sex), season (summer/wet season or winter/dry season, Season), and the proportion of body temperatures measured for each individual that were greater than 25°C (PA25) were considered. Models including more than three main effects or interactions were not included to preclude overfitting. The three best fitting models, with a total Akaike weight of 0.705, were averaged to obtain the final model. Predictions of this model appear in Figure 2
| Initial models | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effects in model | AICc | Delta AICc | Akaike weight | Nagelkerke R2 |
| Sex, Species, PA25 | 94.930 | 0.000 | 0.398 | 0.264 |
| Species, PA25 | 96.507 | 1.577 | 0.181 | 0.215 |
| Sex, Species | 97.237 | 2.307 | 0.126 | 0.206 |
| Species, Sex, Season | 98.098 | 3.168 | 0.082 | 0.223 |
| Season, Species, PA25 | 98.632 | 3.702 | 0.063 | 0.216 |
| PA25 | 99.366 | 4.436 | 0.043 | 0.119 |
| Sex, PA25 | 99.683 | 4.753 | 0.037 | 0.144 |
| Sex, Season, PA25 | 101.057 | 6.127 | 0.019 | 0.155 |
| Season, PA25 | 101.150 | 6.220 | 0.018 | 0.124 |
| Species, Season | 101.459 | 6.529 | 0.015 | 0.149 |
| Species | 102.090 | 7.160 | 0.011 | 0.111 |
| Sex | 104.602 | 9.672 | 0.003 | 0.045 |
| Sex, Season | 104.794 | 9.864 | 0.003 | 0.072 |
| Season | 104.944 | 10.014 | 0.003 | 0.040 |
*coefficients structurally set to zero; †one-tailed P value due to pre-existing hypothesis regarding effect direction (higher PA25 should decrease P(infection)).
Figure 2Individual probability of infection by the amphibian chytrid skin fungus in nature was strongly related to individual thermal history.
This logistic model, incorporating species identity, gender, and percent of body temperatures above 25°C (Table 2), was produced by averaging the three best fitted models, each with delta AICC < 3. Color coding corresponds to species-level susceptibility to epidemic chytridiomycosis (red most, amber intermediate, green least). Predictions of the model correspond well (r2 = 0.739, 4 d.f., P = 0.028) with population-level patterns of prevalence when it is used to predict prevalence by season and site, factors not included in the model.