The impending shortage and cost of training the future plastic surgical workforce.

An expanding US population with increasing demand for aesthetic surgery, growing competition from other specialties, a constant rate of retiring plastic surgeons, and a static number of residents places increasing demands on the plastic surgical workforce in the coming years. Without certain changes, the plastic surgical workforce will be unable to meet their demand, and other specialties will increasingly encroach on aesthetic and reconstructive procedures. Given Census Bureau predictions for the US population, the numbers of residents allotted by the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, The American Board of Plastic Surgery data on the current plastic surgical workforce, and using a population-based analysis to predict future shortages in plastic surgery residents, the workforce shortage can be estimated as 800 residents in 2020 and up to 3223 residents in 2050. Based on previously reported figures, the additional cost in training these residents by 2050 is more than $1.5 billion.