Predicting the daily prothrombin time response to warfarin.

Our objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of a computer program to predict daily prothrombin time (PT) response to warfarin therapy using prospectively collected data. The program's predictive performance (precision) and accuracy (bias) were evaluated using fraction mean absolute error and fraction mean error, respectively. We analyzed data from 40 patients using from zero to nine PT feedbacks. The fraction mean absolute error varied from 0.058 to 0.13. The program utilized a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic Bayesian forecasting system to predict prothrombin response.