Incidence of hip fracture in Barranquilla, Colombia, and the development of a Colombian FRAX model.

A FRAX model for Colombia was released June 30, 2010. This article describes the data used to develop the Colombian FRAX model and illustrates its features compared to other countries. Hip fracture cases aged 50 years or more who were referred to all hospitals serving the city of Barranquilla were identified prospectively over a 3-year period (2004-2006). Age- and sex-stratified hip fracture incidence rates were computed using the 2005 census. Present and future numbers of hip fracture cases in Colombia were calculated from the age- and sex-specific incidence and the national population demography. Mortality rates for 1999 were extracted from nationwide databases and used to estimate hip fracture probabilities. For other major fractures (clinical vertebral, forearm, and humerus), incidence rates were imputed, using Swedish ratios for hip to other major osteoporotic fracture, and used to construct the FRAX model. Incidence of hip fracture increased with age, more markedly in women than in men. Over all ages, the female to male ratio was 1.7. By extrapolation, there were estimated to be 7,902 new hip fracture cases (2,673 men, 5,229 women) in Colombia in 2010, which was predicted to increase to 22,720 cases (7,568 men, 15,152 women) in 2035. The 10-year probability of hip or major fracture was increased in patients with a clinical risk factor, lower BMI, female gender, a higher age, and a decreased BMD T score. The remaining lifetime probability of hip fracture at the age of 50 years was 2.5 and 4.7 % in men and women, respectively, which were lower than rates in a Mexican population (3.8 and 8.5 %, respectively) and comparable with estimates for Venezuela (2.4 and 7.5 %, respectively). The FRAX tool is the first country-specific fracture-prediction model available in Colombia. It is based on the original FRAX methodology, which has been externally validated in several independent cohorts. Despite some limitations, the strengths make the Colombian FRAX tool a good candidate for implementation into clinical practice.