[Effects of the population screening into breast cancer].

Annually, in the Netherlands around 900,000 women between the ages of 50-75 years undergo mammography as part of a population screening into breast cancer. In this way more than 5000 cases of breast cancer are detected (0.6% of women screened); 70% of these malignancies are < stage II, which is prognostically favourable. Due to the early detection and treatment of breast cancer, the breast cancer death risk in those women who participate in the population screening is half that of women who choose not to be screened. The downside of the population screening is that participants are relatively often referred to a hospital for a diagnostic work-up (around 2%), and 70% of them are ultimately found not to have cancer. The positive predictive value of the population screening is 30%. Early discovery also leads to over-diagnosis in patients with breast cancer that without screening would never have manifested itself. Based on computer simulations it has been estimated that in the Netherlands over-diagnosis occurs in 9% of patients in whom breast cancer is detected during a population screening.