Use of ClinicalTrials.gov to estimate condition-specific nocebo effects and other factors affecting outcomes of analgesic trials.

UNLABELLED: ClinicalTrials.gov is a registry and results database of federally and privately supported clinical trials conducted worldwide. We sought to answer: what are the characteristics of pain trials; how frequently are these trials stopped and why; what is the magnitude of attrition due to lack of efficacy or adverse events; and whether the withdrawal rates depend on pain syndrome. To facilitate this and subsequent studies, we have developed a system called Sherlock that automatically downloads data from ClinicalTrials.gov into a relational database. We included pain interventional trials. To evaluate attrition, we restricted consideration to prospective randomized, parallel, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials. Of the 82,867 trials, 6% reported results and 5.6% terminated before the planned number of subjects was accrued. Of these early terminations, 38% were due to enrollment difficulties. In the placebo arms, 3.8% of participants withdrew due to lack of efficacy and 4.9% due to adverse events, with proportions differing among pain conditions. Compared with migraine trials, in fibromyalgia trials 5.1% more participants withdrew due to lack of efficacy (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5-7.8%), and 6.4% more withdrew due to adverse events (95% CI, 4.3-8.6%). Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were the treatment class with the lowest adverse events withdrawals. Recruitment challenges account for the largest proportion of noncompleted trials. Attrition rates differ across pain conditions. Migraine studies had the lowest withdrawal rate. Tools like Sherlock facilitate conducting research in the ClinicalTrials.gov registry. PERSPECTIVE: ClinicalTrials.gov registry enables researchers to get a snapshot of a specific field and observe changes over time in trial design, including numbers of subjects accrued, and it can inform clinical trial design. We learned that recruitment challenges account for the largest proportion of noncompleted trials, attrition rates differed across pain conditions, and migraine studies had the lowest withdrawal rate.