High-risk patients following hospitalisation for an acute exacerbation of COPD.

The aim of this study was to assess long-term mortality and predictive factors of death after hospital admission for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). 1824 patients (23.2% female; mean age 70.3±11.3 years) consecutively admitted for acute exacerbation of COPD in the respiratory medicine departments of 68 general hospitals between October 2006 and June 2007 were prospectively enrolled in a follow-up cohort. Their vital status was documented between October 2010 and April 2011. Vital status was available for 1750 patients (95.9%), among whom 787 (45%) died during follow-up. Multivariate analysis found that age (60-80 years and ≥80 years versus <60 years, relative risk 2.99, 95% CI 2.31-3.89), lower body mass index (25-30 kg·m(-2) versus ≤20 kg·m(-2), relative risk 0.80, 95% CI 0.66-0.97), lung cancer (relative risk 2.08, 95% CI 1.43-3.01), cardiovascular comorbidity (relative risk 1.35, 95% CI 1.16-1.58), previous hospital admissions for acute exacerbation of COPD (four or more versus none, relative risk 1.91, 95% CI 1.44-2.53), use of accessory respiratory muscles (relative risk 1.19, 95% CI 1.01-1.40) or lower-limb oedema (relative risk 1.74, 95% CI (1.44-2.12)) at admission and treatment by long-term oxygen therapy at discharge (relative risk 2.09, 95% CI 1.79-2.45) were independent risk factors of death. Mortality rate during the 4 years following hospital admission for acute exacerbation of COPD was high (45%). Simple clinical information relating to respiratory and general status can help in identifying high-risk patients and targeting more intensive follow-up and care. Interestingly, cardiovascular comorbidities and past hospitalisations for acute exacerbation of COPD, but not forced expiratory volume in 1 s, independently predicted the risk of death.