Total hip replacement but not clinical osteoarthritis can be predicted by the shape of the hip: a prospective cohort study (CHECK).

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between baseline hip shape and both clinical hip osteoarthritis (OA) and total hip replacement (THR) at 5-year follow-up.
DESIGN: Individuals from the Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee (CHECK) study, with early symptomatic OA, having standardized anteroposterior pelvic radiographs at baseline and 5-year follow-up (n = 723) were included. Hip shape on the radiographs was assessed using statistical shape modeling (SSM). Hips fulfilling the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria at follow-up were classified as clinical OA. The association between each mode of shape variation and both outcome measures was calculated by Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE).
RESULTS: The included individuals comprised 575 females and 148 males (mean age 55.9 ± 5.2 years). At baseline, 8% fulfilled the ACR criteria, 76% had no radiographic hip OA [Kellgren & Lawrence (K&L) = 0] and 24% had doubtful OA (K&L = 1). At follow-up, 147 hips (10.4%) fulfilled the ACR criteria and 35 hips (2.5%) had received THR. Five shape variants (modes) at baseline associated significantly with THR within 5 years. When combined in one GEE model, these shape variants resulted in a predictive power indicated by an area under the curve of 0.81. No shape variants associated with the presence of clinical OA at follow-up.
CONCLUSION: The shape of the hip as quantified by an SSM has a good predictive value for THR, whereas variation in shape cannot predict clinical OA. Minor shape variants may be used as a radiographic biomarker to predict the future risk of THR.