Prediction of early HBeAg seroconversion by decreased titers of HBeAg in the serum combined with increased grades of lobular inflammation in the liver.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion is an important hallmark in the natural course of chronic hepatitis B. This study was designed to predict early HBeAg seroconversion within 1 year, by not only biochemical and virological markers, but also pathological parameters in patients with chronic hepatitis B. MATERIAL/
METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study, 234 patients with HBeAg were reviewed for demographic, biochemical, virological and pathological data at the time of liver biopsy. Then, the patients who accomplished HBeAg seroconversion within 1 year thereafter were compared with those who did not, for sorting out factors predictive of early HBeAg seroconversion.
RESULTS: Early HBeAg seroconversion occurred in 58 (24.8%) patients. In univariate analysis, factors predictive of early HBeAg seroconversion were: alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (p=0.002), IP-10 (p=0.029), HBsAg (p=0.003), HBeAg (p<0.001), HBV DNA (p=0.001), HBcrAg (p=0.001), core-promoter mutations (p=0.040), fibrosis (p=0.033) and lobular inflammation (p=0.002). In multivariate analysis, only serum HBeAg levels <100 Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI) U/ml and grades of lobular inflammation ≥2 were independent factors for early HBeAg seroconversion (odds ratio 8.430 [95% confidence interval 4.173-17.032], p<0.001; and 4.330 [2.009-9.331], p<0.001; respectively).
CONCLUSIONS: HBeAg levels < 100 PEIU/ml combined with grades of lobular inflammation ≥2 are useful for predicting early HBeAg seroconversion. In patients without liver biopsies, high ALT levels (≥200 IU/L) can substitute for lobular inflammation (grades ≥2).

Background

Worldwide, an estimated 350 million people are infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) persistently [1,2]. HBV infection is a major global concern, because up to 40% of patients can develop grave complications, such as decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) [3]. In the natural course of chronic hepatitis B, HBeAg seroconversion, defined by the loss of HBeAg and development of the corresponding antibody (anti-HBe), is an important hallmark, because it is highly correlated with a favorable long-term outcome. Seroconversion is usually followed by sustained suppression of HBV DNA, normalization of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels, and clinical remission accompanied by ameliorated necro-inflammatory activities in the liver [4-6].

To date, a number of factors have been found to predispose patients to spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion [7-19]. However, few studies have evaluated pathological factors for predicting early HBeAg seroconversion. In a small series of patients from Spain, the Knodell’s index of histological activity was one of the independent predictors of early HBeAg seroconversion [14]. Recently, novel markers of the replication of HBV were introduced, such as levels of HBsAg, HBeAg and HBcrAg (HBV core-related antigen), which can replace HBV DNA levels. These serological markers of HBV replication have been evaluated for sensitive and reliable prediction of early HBeAg seroconversion [20-23]. In the present study, an attempt was made to select factors predictive of early HBeAg seroconversion, from among many biochemical, virological and pathological parameters, based on the data of 234 HBeAg-positive patients with chronic hepatitis B.

Material and Methods

Patients and study design

This is a retrospective cohort study with use of stored sera and liver biopsy specimens from patients with chronic hepatitis B who were taken care of in the Hepatology Department, Nagasaki Medical Center, Japan, during 1991 through 2005. The clinical database was reviewed to identify consecutive patients who underwent liver biopsies and had been followed for longer than 1 year. The inclusion criteria were presence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) for 6 months or longer, positivity for HBeAg at the time of liver biopsy, and lack of antiviral treatments before receiving liver biopsies. The exclusion criteria were co-infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) or human immunodeficiency virus type-1, serological markers suggestive of autoimmune disease, daily intake of alcohol >50 g, recent exposure to hepatotoxic drugs, and no stored sera available. They were followed every 3 months or more frequently, if indicated clinically, and their serum samples were monitored for liver biochemistry and serologic markers of HBV infection, including HBsAg, HBeAg, anti-HBe, HBV DNA and HBcrAg. Serum samples had been stored at −20°C until use.

Antiviral therapy was commenced immediately in the patients with: (1) significant fibrosis/cirrhosis detected by liver biopsy; and (2) evidence of decompensation, such as ascites, varices and hepatic encephalopathy.

To identify predictors of early HBeAg seroconversion, clinical, biological, virological and pathological data at the time of liver biopsy were compared between patients who did and who did not achieve early HBeAg seroconversion, within 1 year after receiving liver biopsies, by univariate and multivariate analyses. Further, patients were stratified by independent factors for HBeAg seroconversion, and the cumulative incidence of HBeAg seroconversion was compared between groups using the Kaplan-Meier method. The study protocol complied with the Good Clinical Practice Guidelines and the 1975 Declaration of Helsinki, and was approved by the review board of the institution. Each patient gave a written informed consent before participating in this study.

Routine laboratory tests for HBV markers

Quantitative measurements of HBsAg and HBeAg were carried out using commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kits in the ARCHITECT ANALYSER i2000 (Abbott Japan Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan) in accordance with the manufactures’ instructions in Nagasaki Medical Center. The sensitivity of HBsAg assay ranged from 0.05 to 250 IU/ml. Sera with HBsAg >250 IU/ml were serially diluted 100-fold so as to include them within the dynamic range. HBeAg was quantified by a two-step immunoassay with use of chemiluminescence microparticles. Briefly, undiluted samples were mixed with paramagnetic beads coated with anti-HBe. After a washing step, conjugate and reactants were added for exciting emission of the light that is proportional to the concentration of HBeAg. The result was expressed by the ratio of relative light unit (RLU) of the sample to the cut-off RLU (S/CO). Samples with S/CO values >1.0 were regarded positive for HBeAg. Then, serial dilutions of the reference standard of PE HBeAg (Paul-Ehrlich Institute, Langen, Germany) were used to define the linear range of the assay and create a reference curve for linear regression. The linear range was 0.024–100 PEIU/ml. A standard curve was produced, and linear regression was used to convert assay results into appropriate units (PEIU/ml). For samples that fell outside the linear range of the assay, the assay was performed on serial dilutions to ensure the linearity.

HBV DNA and HBcrAg

HBV DNA was determined by the COBAS Taqman HBV test (Roche Diagnostics K.K., Tokyo, Japan). Values under or over the detection range were recorded as 2.1 or 9.1 log copies/ml. HBcrAg was measured by the CLEIA HBcrAg assay kit (Fujirebio, Inc., Tokyo, Japan) in a fully automated analyzer (Lumipulse system, Fujirebio, Inc.). Values under or over the detection range were recorded as 3.0 or 7.0 log copies/ml. Assays for HBV DNA and HBcrAg were performed in a commercial clinical laboratory (SRL, Inc., Tokyo, Japan). Sera with values over the detection range were diluted to include them within the dynamic range.

Interferon-inducible protein 10 (IP-10)

IP-10 was quantified by the Invitrogen Human IP-10 ELISA (Invitrogen Corporation, Carlsbad, CA, USA) according to the manufacturer’s protocol in Nagasaki Medical Center.

HBV genotyping

HBV DNA was extracted from serum (100 μl) with use of the SMITEST EX R&D extraction kit (MBL Co., Ltd., Nagoya, Japan). It was amplified for determination of genotypes by the SMITEST HBV Genotyping Kit (MBL Co., Ltd.) based on hybridization with type-specific probes immobilized on a solid-phase support [24].

Precore stop codon (G1896A) and core promoter (A1762T/G1764A) mutations

A1896 mutation in the precore (PreC) region was detected by the enzyme-linked minisequence assay (SMITEST HBV PreC ELMA, Roche Diagnostics, Tokyo, Japan), and mutations in the core promoter (CP) region for T1762/A1764 by the enzyme-linked specific probe assay (SMITEST HBV Core Promoter Mutation Detection Kit, Roche Diagnostics K.K.). The results were recorded as “the wild-type” and “mutant types” dominantly expressed by HBV isolates [25].

Histological examination

Liver biopsy was taken by fine-needle aspiration (16G sonopsy) guided by ultrasonography. Biopsy specimens were fixed in 10% neutral formalin, cut at 3- to 4-μm thickness, and stained with Hematoxyline-Eosin and Azan-Mallory, as well as for silver to visualize reticuline fibers. Tissue sections were examined independently by two senior liver pathologists. For each biopsy specimen, a protocol was filled out for grading necro-inflammation and staging fibrosis by the criteria of Desmet et al. [26] and Scheuer [27] (Table 1). As for the portal activity, not only piecemeal necrosis, but also lymphocytic aggregation was categorized into 5 (0–4) grades in the respective area involved.

Table 1

Histological evaluation of liver biopsy specimens.

(A) Fibrosis staging
Stage	Fibrosis
0	None
1	Enlarged, fibrotic portal tracts
2	Periportal or portal-portal septa but intact architecture
3	Fibrosis with architectural distortion without obvious cirrhosis
4	Probable or definite cirrhosis
(B) Inflammation grading
Grade	Portal/periportal activity		Lobular inflammation
	Piecemeal necrosis	Lymphocyte aggregation
0	None or minimal	None	None
1	Inflammation only	< 1/3 in portal triad	Inflammation alone
2	Mild	1/3–2/3 in portal areas	Focal necrosis or acidphil bodies
3	Moderate	> 2/3 in portal areas	Severe focal cell damages
4	Severe	Entire portal triad	Damage with bridging necrosis

Statistical analysis

Continuous variables were compared between groups by the Mann-Whitney U test, and categorical variables by χ2 and Fisher’s exact tests. The cumulative incidence of HBeAg seroconversion was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the difference was evaluated by the log-rank test. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent factors in significant association with early HBeAg seroconversion. A p value <0.05 was considered significant. Statistical analyses were performed using the SPSS version 17.0 software package (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA).

Results

Baseline characteristics of patients

Among the 673 patients with HBsAg who had received liver biopsies in our hospital during 1991 through 2005, 234 (34.8%) patients who met the inclusion criteria were enrolled in this study. Demographic and laboratory characteristics at the time of liver biopsy are listed in Table 2. They had a median age of 37 years (range: 12–74), and 161 (69%) were men. Of them, 231 (99%) were infected with HBV of genotype C. The median serum ALT level at the baseline was 141 IU/l (range: 13–2644 IU/l), and the median duration of follow-up was 86.5 months (range: 12.0–213.0 months). During the follow-up, 91 (39%) received antiviral treatment, with interferon (IFN) or lamividine, or the combination thereof.

Table 2

Baseline characteristics of patients.

Features	Total (n=234)
Demographic data
Age (years)	37 (12–74)
Men (%)	161 (69)
Biolochemical markers
Albumin (g/dl)	4.1 (2.5–5.0)
Platelets (×103/mm3)	179 (43–338)
ALT (IU/l)	141 (13–2644)
AFP (ng/ml)	7 (0–1863)
IP-10 (ng/ml)	214 (66–3253)
Virological markers
HBV genotypes: A/B/C (%)	1/2/231 (0/1/ 99)
HBsAg (IU/ml)	8039 (2–261647)
HBeAg (PEIU/ml)	245.3 (0.01–3179.7)
HBV DNA (log copies/ml)	7.7 (3.6–8.9)
HBcrAg (log U/ml)	7.8 (5.4–9.2)
PC mutations: wild/mix/mutant (%)	132/100/2 (56/43/1)
CP mutations: wild/mix/mutant/others (%)	55/50/126/3 (24/21/54/1)
Pathological features
Fibrosis stages: 0/1/2/3/4 (%)	15/73/54/38/54 (7/31/23/16/ 23)
Lymphocytic aggregation: 0/1/2/3/4 (%)	6/65/107/45/11 (2/28/46/19/5)
Piecemeal necrosis: 0/1/2/3/4 (%)	59/52/57/58/8 (25/22/24/25/4)
Lobular inflammation: 0/1/2/3/4 (%)	4/91/104/32/3 (2/39/44/14/1)
Antiviral treatments
Within 1 year of biopsy (%)	91 (39)
Antiviral agents: 1/2/3/4* (%)	44/33/13/1 (49/36/14/1)
Duration of follow up (months)	86.5 (12.0–213.0)

Qualitative variables are expressed in the number with percentage in parentheses, and quantitative variables are expressed in the median with range in parentheses. ALT – alanine aminotransferase; AFP – alpha-fetoprotein; IP-10 – the interferon-gamma inducible protein-10; HBV – hepatitis B virus; HBsAg – hepatitis B surface antigen; HBeAg – hepatitis B e antigen; HBcrAg – hepatitis B virus core-related antigen; PC – precore; CP – core promoter.

1, Interferon alpha; 2, lamivudine; 3, lamivudine plus interferon-alpha; 4, entecavir.

Comparison of clinical features between patients with and without early HBeAg seroconversion

Early HBeAg seroconversion, within 1 year after receiving liver biopsies, was achieved by 58 of the 234 (24.8%) patients. In univariate analysis, factors predictive of early HBeAg seroconversion were: ALT (p=0.002), IP-10 (p=0.029), HBsAg (p=0.003), HBeAg (p<0.001), HBV DNA (p=0.001), HBcrAg (p<0.001), CP mutations (p=0.040), fibrosis (p=0.033) and lobular inflammation (p=0.002). Other factors including age, albumin, platelets, AFP, PreC mutation, cell infiltration and piecemeal necrosis in the liver, as well as treatments within 1 year after the entry and type of antiviral agents, were not associated with early HBeAg seroconversion (Table 3).

Table 3

Univariate analysis of risk factors for early HBeAg seroconversion.

Variables	Early HBeAg seroconversion		p value
	Achieved	Not achieved
	(n=58)	(n=176)
Demographic data
Age (years)	36 (17–69)	37 (12–74)	0.303
Men (%)	41 (71)	120 (68)	0.721
Biolochemical markers
Albumin (g/dl)	4.1 (2.8–4.8)	4.1 (2.5–5.0)	0.877
Platelets (×103/mm3)	171 (43–291)	186 (57–338)	0.487
ALT (IU/l)	227 (18–2072)	121 (13–2644)	0.002
AFP (ng/ml)	12 (1–1863)	6 (0–683)	0.070
IP-10 (ng/ml)	259 (77–1743)	204 (66–3253)	0.029
Virological markers
HBV genotypes A/B/C (%)	0/0/58 (0/0/100)	1/2/173 (1/1/98)	1
HBsAg (IU/ml)	5127 (8–261647)	9033 (2–128511)	0.003
HBeAg (PEIU/ml)	20.9 (0.01–1985.0)	377.1 (0.01–3179.7)	<0.001
HBV DNA (log copies/ml)	7.2 (3.7–8.7)	7.8 (3.6–8.9)	0.001
HBcrAg (log U/ml)	7.2 (5.7–9.2)	8.0 (5.4–9.1)	<0.001
PC mutations: wild/mix/mutant (%)	26/31/1 (45/53/2)	106/69/1 (60/39/1)	0.075
CP mutations: wild/mix/mutant/others (%)	8/9/40/1 (14/15/69/2)	47/41/86/2 (27/23/49/1)	0.040
Pathological features
Fibrosis stage: 0/1/2/3/4 (%)	1/12/18/14/13 (2/21/31/24/22)	14/61/36/24/ 41 (8/35/20/14/23)	0.033
Lymphocytic aggregation: 0/1/2/3/4 (%)	0/11/27/17/3 (0/19/47/29/5)	6/54/80/28/8 (3/31/45/16/5)	0.087
Piecemeal necrosis: 0/1/2/3/4 (%)	7/12/18/19/2 (12/21/31/33/3)	52/40/39/39/6 (30/23/22/22/3)	0.068
Lobular inflammation: 0/1/2/3/4 (%)	0/13/29/15/1 (0/22/50/26/2)	4/78/75/17/2 (2/44/43/10/1)	0.002
Antiviral treatments within 1 year after biopsy (%)	28 (48)	63 (36)	0.091
Antiviral agents: 1/2/3/4* (%)	18/5/5/0 (64/18/18/0)	26/28/8/1 (41/44/13/2)	0.051

Qualitative variables are expressed by the number of patients with percentage in parentheses, and quantitative variables are expressed by the median with range in parentheses. ALT – alanine aminotransferase; AFP – alpha-fetoprotein; IP-10 – the interferon-gamma inducible protein-10; HBV – hepatitis B virus; HBsAg – hepatitis B surface antigen; HBeAg – hepatitis B e antigen; HBcrAg – hepatitis B virus core-related antigen; PC – precore; CP – core promoter.

1, Interferon alpha; 2, lamivudine; 3, lamivudine plus interferon-alpha; 4, entecavir.

Evaluation of HBV markers for predicting early HBeAg seroconversion

HBV markers were compared for sensitivity and specificity in predicting early HBeAg seroconversion by the receiver operating characteristic analysis (Figure 1). HBeAg at the time of liver biopsy was the best predictor of early HBeAg seroconversion, with the widest area under the curve of 0.750; it was larger than those of HBcrAg (0.708), HBV DNA (0.650) and HBsAg (0.630). Hence, HBeAg was selected as the best HBV marker predictive of early seroconversion. Based on the receiver operating characteristic curve, HBeAg titers were dichotomized by 100 PEIU/ml in the immunoassay.

Figure 1

Receiver operating characteristic curves for evaluation of the power of predicting early HBeAg seroconversion.

Independent predictors for early HBeAg seroconversion

A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to select independent predictors of early HBeAg seroconversion from among variables significant in the univariate analysis (Table 4). Of all factors, including histological characteristics, HBeAg <100 PEIU/ml and grades ≥2 lobular inflammation remained as independent factors predictive of early HBeAg seroconversion (Table 4A). Of factors exclusive of histological parameters, HBeAg <100 PEIU/ml and ALT ≥200 IU/ml remained as independent factors for early HBeAg seroconversion (Table 4B).

Table 4

Multivariate analysis for the risk of early HBeAg seroconversion.

Variables	Odds ratio	95% confidence interval	p value
(A) All factors including histological characteristics
HBeAg (<100 PEIU/ml)	8.430	4.173–17.032	<0.001
Lobular inflammation (≥2)	4.330	2.009–9.331	<0.001
(B) Factors exclusive of histological characteristics
HBeAg (<100 PEIU/ml)	7.327	3.703–14.497	<0.001
ALT (≥200 IU/l)	3.093	1.562–6.127	0.001

HBeAg – hepatitis B e antigen; ALT – alanine aminotransferase.

Combinations of two independent factors for predicting early HBeAg seroconversion

Two combinations of independent factors were evaluated for the performance in predicting early HBeAg seroconversion. The patients who had two predictors in combination, HBeAg <100 PEIU/ml and grades ≥2 lobular inflammation, achieved early HBeAg seroconversion in the highest frequency at 66.0% (31/47). In a remarkable contrast, merely 6.9% (4/58) of the patients without either of these predictors achieved early HBeAg seroconversion (Figure 2A).

Figure 2

Probability of early HBeAg seroconversion. (A) The rate of early HBeAg seroconversion assessed by HBeAg titers and grades of lobular inflammation. (B) The rate of early HBeAg seroconversion assessed by HBeAg titers and ALT levels.

Likewise, early seroconversion was achieved by 18 of the 30 (60.0%) patients with the other combination of independent factors, exclusive of pathological parameters, HBeAg <100 PEIU/ml and ALT ≥200 IU/l. By contrast, only 6 of the 99 (6.1%) patients without either of them achieved early HBeAg seroconversion (Figure 2B).

Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of predicting early HBeAg seroconversion are: 74.5% (31/58), 90.9% (160/176), 66.0% (31/47) and 85.6% (160/187), respectively, for the combination of HBeAg <100 PEIU/ml and grades ≥2 lobular inflammation; and 31.0% (18/58), 93.2% (164/176), 60.0% (18/30) and 80.4% (164/204), respectively, for the combination of HBeAg <100 PEIU/ml and ALT ≥200 IU/l.

Long-term clinical outcomes

Besides the 58 patients with early HBeAg seroconversion, an additional 97 patients achieved HBeAg seroconversion during a median follow-up period of 86.5 months. Cumulative rates of HBeAg seroconversion at 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10 years were 24.8%, 50.1%, 66.3%, 71.3% and 73.1%, respectively, during the follow-up >10 years after liver biopsies (Figure 3). Of note, HCC developed in 18 of the 234 (7.7%) patients during the follow-up.

Figure 3

Cumulative rates of HBeAg seroconversion in the 234 patients during 10 years. Cumulative rates of HBeAg seroconversion at 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10 years were 24.8%, 50.1%, 66.3%, 71.3% and 73.1%, respectively, during the follow-up.

Figure 4A compares cumulative HBeAg seroconversion rates stratified by HBeAg titers and grades of lobular inflammation. The patients, who had the combination of HBeAg <100 PEIU/ml and lobular inflammation grades ≥2, gained an HBeAg seroconversion rate higher than those having 3 other combinations. Likewise, cumulative HBeAg seroconversion rates stratified by HBeAg titers and ALT levels are compared in Figure 4B. HBeAg seroconversion rate of the patients, who had the combination of HBeAg <100 PEIU/ml and ALT ≥200 IU/l, was higher than those with 3 other combinations, with definitive (p=0.003 and p<0.001) or marginal (p=0.061) significance.

Figure 4

Cumulative rates of HBeAg seroconversion in four groups of patients. (A) Cumulative rates of HBeAg seroconversion stratified by HBeAg titers and grades of lobular inflammation. (B) Cumulative rates of HBeAg seroconversion stratified by HBeAg titers and ALT levels. HBeAg titers were dichotomized into low (<100 PEIU/ml) or high (≥100 PEIU/ml); lobular inflammation grades into low (<2) or high (≥2); and ALT levels into low (<200 IU/l) or high (≥200 IU/l).

Discussion

HBeAg seroconversion is important as a clinical target in the management of chronic hepatitis B. In the absence of therapeutic interventions, HBeAg seroconversion occurs spontaneously at a rate of 0.8–15% per year [28]. To date, many factors have been found in association with HBeAg seroconversion, including older age, high ALT levels, genotype B (compared with C), the Knodell’s index of histologic activities, the amount of HBV core antigen in the liver, high serum AFP levels, increased immunoglobulin-M anti-HBc titers, increased serum β2-microglobulin concentrations, enhanced expression of HLA-antigens on the membrane of hepatocytes, non-vertical transmission modes, low HBV DNA levels, and high serum levels of IL-10 as well as IL-12 [7-19].

It would be clinically useful to predict early HBeAg seroconversion, because antiviral treatments can be withheld in the patients in whom HBeAg disappears and anti-HBe develops within a certain time limit, perhaps 1 year. In the present study, the majority of patients (99% of the 234 examined) were infected with HBV of genotype C. Patients with persistent HBV infection in Japan are infected with HBV of either genotype B or C, with an increasing gradient of C toward the south [29,30]. All the 234 patients had received liver biopsies before they were started to be followed for HBeAg seroconversion. The present study is unique in that, not only serological variables, but also histological parameters were evaluated for the association with early HBeAg seroconversion within 1 year. By univariate analysis, many factors that have been reported in association with HBeAg seroconversion predicted early HBeAg seroconversion. Among them, only HBeAg (<100 PEIU/ml) and lobular inflammation (grades ≥2) remained as independent factors for early HBeAg seroconversion by multivariate analysis.

Previous clinical studies have indicated that serial monitoring of HBsAg, HBeAg and HBV DNA levels during antiviral treatments is useful for predicting HBeAg seroconversion [20-23]. Although the determination of HBV DNA in sera remains as an important tool for monitoring outcomes of patients with chronic hepatitis B, it is technically challenging, costly, and subject to inconsistency. Hence, three serological markers of HBV replication, HBsAg, HBeAg and HBcrAg, were quantitated for evaluating the performance in predicting early HBeAg seroconversion, in comparison with HBV DNA levels. In the receiver operating characteristic analysis, HBeAg levels performed the best amongst these four replication markers, with an area under curve wider than those of the other three. Since the quantitation of HBeAg is relatively easy, fast, and inexpensive, HBeAg would be qualified as a sensitive and practical predictor of early HBeAg seroconversion [20-23].

The histological activity has been reported to predict early HBeAg seroconversion in previous studies [14,31]. Therefore, pathological parameters including the stage of fibrosis, as well as grades of portal inflammation, piecemeal necrosis and lobular inflammation, were evaluated in this study. By multivariate analysis, lobular inflammation of grades ≥2, represented by focal necrosis or acidophil bodies, was identified as an independent factor for early seroconversion. Hence, portal inflammation without necrosis would not be enough, but instead, severe lobular inflammation may be required for predicting early seroconversion.

Many previous studies have identified a variety of factors associated with HBeAg seroconversion [7-19], but a combination of serum markers of HBV with pathological parameters was evaluated rarely. Therefore, the combination of HBeAg <100 PEIU/ml and grades ≥2 lobular inflammation was evaluated for the predictability of early HBeAg seroconversion. Patients with neither HBeAg <100 PEIU/ml nor grades ≥2 lobular inflammation had a minimal chance for early HBeAg seroconversion (6.9% [4/58]), whereas a high proportion of patients with both of these predictors did accomplish early seroconversion (66.0% [31/47]) (Figure 2A). Thus, the combination of histologic activity and serum HBV marker would be very useful for predicting early HBeAg seroconversion, and serve in decision making whether or not to commence antiviral treatments in HBeAg-positive patients with chronic hepatitis B. Although some patients received antiviral treatments, they would not have influenced the evaluation to any serious extent. Within the first 1 year of follow-up, antiviral treatments were given comparably frequently to patients with and without early HBeAg seroconversion (48% vs. 36%, p=0.091). In addition, HBeAg seroconversion is achieved by at most 12–27% of patients who had received antiviral treatments during the first year [28].

Although liver biopsy is essential for defining the stage of disease progression, it has some limitations, in that it is invasive and accompanies the risk of complications. By multivariate analysis, exclusive of pathological factors, ALT ≥200 IU/l remained as an independent factor (Table 4). ALT ≥200 (IU/l), corresponding to 5 × the upper limit of normal [ULN], coincided with the cut-off point recognized by the receiver operating characteristic curve (data not shown). In previous studies, also, ALT levels ≥5 × ULN were predictive of early HBeAg seroconversion [19,32-33]. Present results are in line with these observations, and point to the capability of ALT ≥200 IU/l to replace lobular inflammation of grades ≥2 in the patients in whom liver biopsy is not feasible.

Conclusions

The results of this study indicate that the combination of low HBeAg titers and high grades of lobular inflammation is clinically useful for predicting early HBeAg seroconversion in patients with chronic hepatitis B. When and if liver biopsy is not to be performed, ALT can substitute for lobular inflammation. The combination of low HBeAg titers, with either high grades of lobular inflammation or elevated ALT levels, predicted not only early, but also long-term HBeAg seroconversion.