V O Alonge1, T Grant, A Drummond, D Sugrue, M Codd. 1. School of Public Health Physiotherapy and Population Science, University College Dublin, Woodview House, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland. victor.alonge@ucdconnect.ie
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Ireland is undergoing a demographic shift to a higher proportion of older people in the population. It is expected that this demographic shift will significantly increase the burden of care on an already overstretched acute hospitals system. AIM: This study was conducted to estimate the future burden of care on acute public hospitals pertaining to 'diseases of the circulatory system' and 'procedures on cardiovascular system' in Ireland using Hospital In-Patient Enquiry (HIPE) data for 2006 and population projections for 2021 and 2031. METHODS: Age-specific rates derived from HIPE data for 2006 and census figures for the same year were applied to population projections for 2021 and 2031 to get case number estimates in those years. RESULTS: The number of discharges with a primary diagnosis of diseases of the circulatory system is estimated to increase by 51 % by 2021 and 97 % by 2031 relative to 2006 figures. For people aged 65+ years, case numbers are estimated to increase by 65 % by 2021 and 133 % by 2031 relative to 2006 case numbers. The number of procedures performed is estimated to increase by 47 % by 2021 and 82 % by 2031 relative to 2006 figures. For people aged 65+ years, case numbers are estimated to increase by 63 % by 2021 and 120 % by 2031 relative to 2006 case numbers. CONCLUSION: The results reflect the aging of the Irish population. The expected increases in case numbers will pose significant burden on acute public hospitals and the cost of providing care.
BACKGROUND: Ireland is undergoing a demographic shift to a higher proportion of older people in the population. It is expected that this demographic shift will significantly increase the burden of care on an already overstretched acute hospitals system. AIM: This study was conducted to estimate the future burden of care on acute public hospitals pertaining to 'diseases of the circulatory system' and 'procedures on cardiovascular system' in Ireland using Hospital In-Patient Enquiry (HIPE) data for 2006 and population projections for 2021 and 2031. METHODS: Age-specific rates derived from HIPE data for 2006 and census figures for the same year were applied to population projections for 2021 and 2031 to get case number estimates in those years. RESULTS: The number of discharges with a primary diagnosis of diseases of the circulatory system is estimated to increase by 51 % by 2021 and 97 % by 2031 relative to 2006 figures. For people aged 65+ years, case numbers are estimated to increase by 65 % by 2021 and 133 % by 2031 relative to 2006 case numbers. The number of procedures performed is estimated to increase by 47 % by 2021 and 82 % by 2031 relative to 2006 figures. For people aged 65+ years, case numbers are estimated to increase by 63 % by 2021 and 120 % by 2031 relative to 2006 case numbers. CONCLUSION: The results reflect the aging of the Irish population. The expected increases in case numbers will pose significant burden on acute public hospitals and the cost of providing care.
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