On the origin of influenza A hemagglutinin.

Recent advances in phylogenetic methods have produced some reassessments of the ages of the most recent common ancestor of hemagglutinin proteins in known strains of influenza A. This paper applies Bayesian phylogenetic analysis implemented in BEAST to date the nodes on the influenza A hemagglutinin tree. The most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of influenza A hemagglutinin proteins is located with 95% confidence between 517 and 1497 of the Common Era (AD), with the center of the probability distribution at 1056 AD. The implications of this revised dating for both historical and current epidemiology are discussed. Influenza A can be seen as an emerging disease of mediaeval and early modern times.