Risk factors associated with seropositivity to small ruminant lentiviruses in goat herds.

Cross-sectional studies based on serological testing and questionnaires were conducted at 5-yr intervals (1996, 2002 and 2007) in goat breeding herds from Poland to determine true herd-level seroprevalence of caprine arthritis-encephalitis and the herd-level risk factors for seropositivity. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed for data from 1996 and the combined data from 2002 and 2007, separately. True herd-level seroprevalences in 1996, 2002 and 2007 were 30.8% (CI 95%: 20.5-41.0%), 65.7% and 71.9%, respectively. The import of goats from abroad was a risk factor only in 1996 (OR 13.6, CI 95%: 1.14-162). The presence of seropositive bucks in a herd was a risk factor in 1996 (OR 21, CI 95%: 1.89-233) and in 2002-2007 (OR 2.9, CI 95%: 1.04-8.4). Moreover, large herds (>30 does in 1996 or >100 does in 2002-2007) were more likely to be seropositive than smaller herds (OR=10.1, CI 95%: 2.17-46 in 1996 and OR 5.4, CI 95%: 1.11-26 in 2002-2007).