Platinum availability for future automotive technologies.

Platinum is an excellent catalyst, can be used at high temperatures, and is stable in many aggressive chemical environments. Consequently, platinum is used in many current industrial applications, notably automotive catalytic converters, and prospective vehicle fuel cells are expected to rely upon it. Between 2005 and 2010, the automotive industry used approximately 40% of mined platinum. Future automotive industry growth and automotive sales shifts toward new technologies could significantly alter platinum demand. The potential risks for decreased platinum availability are evaluated, using an analysis of platinum market characteristics that describes platinum's geophysical constraints, institutional efficiency, and dynamic responsiveness. Results show that platinum demand for an automotive fleet that meets 450 ppm greenhouse gas stabilization goals would require within 10% of historical growth rates of platinum supply before 2025. However, such a fleet, due largely to sales growth in fuel cell vehicles, will more strongly constrain platinum supply in the 2050 time period. While current platinum reserves are sufficient to satisfy this increased demand, decreasing platinum ore grade and continued concentration of platinum supply in a single geographic area are availability risk factors to platinum end-users.