The possession game? A comparative analysis of ball retention and team success in European and international football, 2007-2010.

Possession is thought of as central to success in modern football, but questions remain about its impact on positive team outcomes (Bate, 1988; Hughes & Franks, 2005; Pollard & Reep, 1997; Stanhope, 2001). Recent studies (e.g. Bloomfield, Polman, & O'Donoghue, 2005; Carling, Williams, & Reilly, 2005; James, Mellallieu, & Holley, 2002; Jones, James, & Mellalieu, 2004; Lago, 2009; Lago & Martin, 2007; Lago-Peñas & Dellal, 2010; Lago-Peñas, Lago-Ballesteros, Dellal, & Gómez, 2010; Taylor, Mellalieu, & James, 2005; Tucker, Mellalieu, James, & Taylor, 2005) that have examined these questions have often been constrained by an exclusive focus on English or Spanish domestic play. Using data from five European leagues, UEFA and FIFA tournaments, the study found that while possession time and passing predicted aggregated team success in domestic league play, both variables were poor predictors at the individual match level once team quality and home advantage were accounted for. In league play, the effect of greater possession was consistently negative; in the Champions League, it had virtually no impact. In national team tournaments, possession failed to reach significance when offensive factors were accounted for. Much of the success behind the 'possession game' was thus a function of elite teams confined in geographic and competitive space. That ball hegemony was not consistently tied to success suggests that a nuanced approach to possession is needed to account for variant strategic environments (e.g. James et al., 2002) and compels match analysts to re-examine the metric's overall value.