The potential economic value of a human norovirus vaccine for the United States.

Vaccines against human norovirus are currently under development. We developed a simulation model to determine their potential economic value. Vaccination prevented 100-6125 norovirus gastroenteritis cases per 10,000 vaccinees. Low vaccine cost (≤$50) garnered cost-savings and a more expensive vaccine led to costs per case averted comparable to other vaccines. In the US, vaccination could avert approximately 1.0-2.2 million cases (efficacy 50%, 12 month duration), costing an additional $400 million to $1.0 billion, but could save ≤$2.1 billion (48 month duration). Human norovirus vaccination can offer economic value while averting clinical outcomes, depending on price, efficacy, and protection duration.