Andreas Machens1, Henning Dralle. 1. Department of General, Visceral, and Vascular Surgery, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Strasse 40, D-06097 Halle (Saale), Germany. AndreasMachens@aol.com
Abstract
CONTEXT: A prognostic classification system based on aggregate numbers of lymph node metastases may better estimate the risk of distant metastasis. OBJECTIVE: This investigation sought to evaluate a papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) patient's risk of distant metastasis. DESIGN: This was a retrospective analysis. SETTING: The setting was a tertiary referral center. PATIENTS: Included were 972 PTC patients. INTERVENTION: The intervention was compartment-oriented surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The main outcome measure was lung, bone, and liver metastasis. RESULTS: Eighty-seven (9.0%) of the 972 PTC patients had distant metastases to lung (79 patients), bone (16 patients), liver (two patients), brain and skin (one patient each). For distant metastasis, more than 20 lymph node metastases had a specificity of 90.8% and a negative predictive value of 92.7%, whereas sensitivity and positive predictive value were low (27.6 and 22.9%). On multivariate logistic regression, 1-5, 6-10, and 11-20 involved nodes denoted a moderate risk of lung metastasis [odds ratio (OR), 9.9, 10.6, and 13.8; P ≤ 0.004], whereas more than 20 involved nodes indicated a high risk of lung metastasis (OR, 25.0; P < 0.001). Mediastinal lymph node metastasis carried a moderate risk of lung metastasis (OR, 7.5; P = 0.001). When these numeric categories of lymph node metastases were exchanged for current tumor node metastasis (TNM) N categories, the OR decreased from 25.0 (for > 20 lymph node metastases) to 16.4 (N1b), and from 9.9-13.8 (for 1-20 lymph node metastases) to 4.7 (N1a). CONCLUSION: In PTC, categories of 0, 1-20, and more than 20 lymph node metastases correlate better with lung metastasis than current TNM N categories N0, N1a, and N1b.
CONTEXT: A prognostic classification system based on aggregate numbers of lymph node metastases may better estimate the risk of distant metastasis. OBJECTIVE: This investigation sought to evaluate a papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) patient's risk of distant metastasis. DESIGN: This was a retrospective analysis. SETTING: The setting was a tertiary referral center. PATIENTS: Included were 972 PTC patients. INTERVENTION: The intervention was compartment-oriented surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The main outcome measure was lung, bone, and liver metastasis. RESULTS: Eighty-seven (9.0%) of the 972 PTC patients had distant metastases to lung (79 patients), bone (16 patients), liver (two patients), brain and skin (one patient each). For distant metastasis, more than 20 lymph node metastases had a specificity of 90.8% and a negative predictive value of 92.7%, whereas sensitivity and positive predictive value were low (27.6 and 22.9%). On multivariate logistic regression, 1-5, 6-10, and 11-20 involved nodes denoted a moderate risk of lung metastasis [odds ratio (OR), 9.9, 10.6, and 13.8; P ≤ 0.004], whereas more than 20 involved nodes indicated a high risk of lung metastasis (OR, 25.0; P < 0.001). Mediastinal lymph node metastasis carried a moderate risk of lung metastasis (OR, 7.5; P = 0.001). When these numeric categories of lymph node metastases were exchanged for current tumor node metastasis (TNM) N categories, the OR decreased from 25.0 (for > 20 lymph node metastases) to 16.4 (N1b), and from 9.9-13.8 (for 1-20 lymph node metastases) to 4.7 (N1a). CONCLUSION: In PTC, categories of 0, 1-20, and more than 20 lymph node metastases correlate better with lung metastasis than current TNM N categories N0, N1a, and N1b.
Authors: Henning Dralle; Thomas J Musholt; Jochen Schabram; Thomas Steinmüller; Andreja Frilling; Dietmar Simon; Peter E Goretzki; Bruno Niederle; Christian Scheuba; Thomas Clerici; Michael Hermann; Jochen Kußmann; Kerstin Lorenz; Christoph Nies; Peter Schabram; Arnold Trupka; Andreas Zielke; Wolfram Karges; Markus Luster; Kurt W Schmid; Dirk Vordermark; Hans-Joachim Schmoll; Reinhard Mühlenberg; Otmar Schober; Harald Rimmele; Andreas Machens Journal: Langenbecks Arch Surg Date: 2013-03-03 Impact factor: 3.445