Subgraph fluctuations in random graphs.

The pattern of over- and under-representations of three-node subgraphs has become a standard method of characterizing complex networks and evaluating how this intermediate level of organization contributes to network function. Understanding statistical properties of subgraph counts in random graphs, their fluctuations, and their interdependences with other topological attributes is an important prerequisite for such investigations. Here we introduce a formalism for predicting subgraph fluctuations induced by perturbations of unidirectional and bidirectional edge densities. On this basis we predict the over- and under-representation of subgraphs arising from a density mismatch between a network and the corresponding pool of randomized graphs serving as a null model. Such mismatches occur, for example, in modular and hierarchical graphs.