BACKGROUND: When treating patients with severe ulcerative colitis (UC), accurate prediction of drug efficacy contributes to early clinical decision-making. AIM: To identify predictive factors and to develop a reliable prediction formula and a decision tree of response to intravenous ciclosporin treatment for severe UC. METHODS: Patients included in this study were those diagnosed with refractory severe UC who had undergone ciclosporin treatment between December 2004 and March 2011 at a tertiary referral centre in Japan. Demographic and clinical parameters from all patients were analysed by multivariate statistics. RESULTS: Fifty-two patients were included in this study (36.5% men with an average age of ciclosporin initiation of 40.2 ± 15.6 years). Thirty-four patients (65.4%) were responders to the treatment with ciclosporin and avoided colectomy, 18 patients (34.6%) were nonresponders and underwent colectomy. Stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis identified four independent predictive factors of response to intravenous ciclosporin: age at hospitalisation (AGE), platelet count (×10(4) /μL) on the first day (PLA), Lichtiger score on the third day (LIC) and total protein (g/dL) on the third day minus total protein on the first day (ΔTP). The calculation formula (8.5 - 0.16 × AGE + 0.21 × PLA - 0.61 × LIC + 2.3 × ΔTP < 0) predicted colectomy with an accuracy of 88.5% and the decision tree predicted colectomy with an accuracy of 90.4%. CONCLUSION: The novel calculation formula and the decision tree effectively predict the clinical outcome of ciclosporin treatment for severe ulcerative colitis as early as on day 3 after starting ciclosporin treatment.
BACKGROUND: When treating patients with severe ulcerative colitis (UC), accurate prediction of drug efficacy contributes to early clinical decision-making. AIM: To identify predictive factors and to develop a reliable prediction formula and a decision tree of response to intravenous ciclosporin treatment for severe UC. METHODS:Patients included in this study were those diagnosed with refractory severe UC who had undergone ciclosporin treatment between December 2004 and March 2011 at a tertiary referral centre in Japan. Demographic and clinical parameters from all patients were analysed by multivariate statistics. RESULTS: Fifty-two patients were included in this study (36.5% men with an average age of ciclosporin initiation of 40.2 ± 15.6 years). Thirty-four patients (65.4%) were responders to the treatment with ciclosporin and avoided colectomy, 18 patients (34.6%) were nonresponders and underwent colectomy. Stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis identified four independent predictive factors of response to intravenous ciclosporin: age at hospitalisation (AGE), platelet count (×10(4) /μL) on the first day (PLA), Lichtiger score on the third day (LIC) and total protein (g/dL) on the third day minus total protein on the first day (ΔTP). The calculation formula (8.5 - 0.16 × AGE + 0.21 × PLA - 0.61 × LIC + 2.3 × ΔTP < 0) predicted colectomy with an accuracy of 88.5% and the decision tree predicted colectomy with an accuracy of 90.4%. CONCLUSION: The novel calculation formula and the decision tree effectively predict the clinical outcome of ciclosporin treatment for severe ulcerative colitis as early as on day 3 after starting ciclosporin treatment.
Authors: Bridget K Butz; Ting Wen; Gerald J Gleich; Glenn T Furuta; Jonathan Spergel; Eileen King; Robert E Kramer; Margaret H Collins; Emily Stucke; Colleen Mangeot; W Daniel Jackson; Molly O'Gorman; J Pablo Abonia; Scott Pentiuk; Philip E Putnam; Marc E Rothenberg Journal: Gastroenterology Date: 2014-04-22 Impact factor: 22.682