The Dubbo study: an Australian prospective community study of the health of elderly.

The proportion of Australian population over 60 years has risen progressively over the last 40 years and this growth is projected to continue. Major health problems of the elderly include coronary heart disease, cerebro-vascular disease, osteoporosis and fracture. The risk factors for coronary heart disease and stroke in middle-aged subjects have been extensively documented in prospective studies in Australia and elsewhere, and include lipid disorders, hypertension, cigarette smoking, diabetes and family history. Few prospective studies have been targeted exclusively on the elderly and information available with respect to vascular risk factors is fragmentary and contradictory. This is the background to a new prospective study of the health of elderly Australians now under way in Dubbo, NSW. The goals of the Dubbo Study are to identify predictors of mortality, hospitalisation and placement in long-term care, while specific aims are the study of risk factors for chronic diseases and disability. This report describes the study rationale, reasons for selecting Dubbo as the study site, methods and measures, participation rates and demography. The target population included all non-institutionalised subjects 60 years and over, domiciled in Dubbo, and is comprised of 1693 males and 2167 females. The attendance rate for an extensive medical and sociological baseline assessment over a 13 months' period was 73% for both sexes. The prospective study is now in place and within three to five years will be generating definitive information in the elderly.