Conditional survival of high-grade glioma in Los Angeles County during the year 1990-2000.

Survival probabilities for high-grade glioma are estimated at the time of diagnosis and provide limited information following treatment. This study determined dynamic indices to predict post-diagnosis survival for high-grade glioma patients. Survival information for 2,743 patients with high-grade glioma, diagnosed in Los Angeles County during the years 1990-2000, were used to estimate conditional survival probabilities with 95 % confidence intervals, for patients still alive at 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 years after diagnosis. The conditional probabilities of surviving one additional year increase as the post-diagnosis survival time increases (from 43 ± 2 % conditional on surviving 1 year after diagnosis to 91 ± 2 % conditional on surviving 5 years after diagnosis). Patients diagnosed with WHO grade III gliomas have higher conditional survival probabilities than those diagnosed WHO grade IV gliomas. However, as the years after diagnosis increase, the differences in the conditional probabilities between the two groups are attenuated. At the time of diagnosis, age and tumor histology (WHO grade), tumor site, primary treatment, time of treatment start after diagnosis, as well as whether the patient was treated at a teaching hospital were significantly associated with overall survival. By 4 years post-diagnosis however, with the exception of age, variables associated with survival at baseline were no longer significantly associated with survival. Conditional survival probabilities provide clinically relevant information for understanding the prognosis for patients with high-grade gliomas.