Response surface methodology and improved interval analysis method--for analyzing uncertainty in accident reconstruction.

Methods used to calculate intervals of accident reconstruction results are research hotspot in the word. The response surface methodology-interval analysis method (RSM-IAM) is a useful method for analyzing uncertainty of simulation results in this field, but there are two problems in this method because of the interval extension problem and inaccurate response surface models. In order to tackle these two problems, based on subinterval analysis thought and response surface methodology, an improved interval analysis method (RSM-IIAM) is proposed. In RSM-IIAM, the stepwise regression technique is used to obtain a reasonable response surface mode of the simulation model; and then, intervals of uncertain parameters are divided into several subintervals; after that, intervals of simulation results in accident reconstruction are calculated according to these subintervals. Finally, four numerical cases were given. Results showed that the RSM-IIAM is simple and high accuracy, which will be useful in analyzing uncertainty of simulation results in accident reconstruction.