The effect of demographic and lifestyle changes on the burden of breast cancer in Iranian women: a projection to 2030.

Iran is rapidly becoming an "ageing society" with a related increase in cancer incidence including breast cancer. This paper evaluates the trend in breast cancer incidence from the past to the present, in order to predict the future burden in Iran and to quantify the effect of changes in known risk factors on incidence over time. Currently, breast cancer incidence in Iran is low with approximately 5000 new cases annually. Under conservative assumptions, the number of new cases of breast cancer in 2030 will be more than 15000. In addition to demographic factors, changes in the prevalence of established risk factors such as reproductive factors and obesity are likely to result in changes in breast cancer patients over time. Extrapolating the increasing prevalence of obesity to the future, we expect that this specific factor will strongly contribute to the increased breast cancer incidence in the future unless preventive measures counteract this effect.