Modeling huanglongbing transmission within a citrus tree.

The citrus disease huanglongbing (HLB), associated with an uncultured bacterial pathogen, is threatening the citrus industry worldwide. A mathematical model of the transmission of HLB between its psyllid vector and citrus host has been developed to characterize the dynamics of the vector and disease development, focusing on the spread of the pathogen from flush to flush (a newly developing cluster of very young leaves on the expanding terminal end of a shoot) within a tree. This approach differs from that of prior models for vector-transmitted plant diseases where the entire plant is the unit of analysis. Dynamics of vector and host populations are simulated realistically as the flush population approaches complete infection. Model analysis indicates that vector activity is essential for initial infection but is not necessary for continued infection because infection can occur from flush to flush through internal movement in the tree. Flush production, within-tree spread, and latent period are the most important parameters influencing HLB development. The model shows that the effect of spraying of psyllids depends on time of initial spraying, frequency, and efficacy of the insecticides. Similarly, effects of removal of symptomatic flush depend on the frequency of removal and the time of initiation of this practice since the start of the epidemic. Within-tree resistance to spread, possibly affected by inherent or induced resistance, is a major factor affecting epidemic development, supporting the notion that alternate routes of transmission besides that by the vector can be important for epidemic development.