Population dynamics of Trichostrongylus colubriformis in sheep: computer model to simulate grazing systems and the evolution of anthelmintic resistance.

A computer model was developed to simulate Trichostrongylus colubriformis populations, their level of resistance to the common anthelmintics, host mortalities and acquired immunity. Predictions were based on sheep management practices such as lambing, weaning, sheep/paddock rotation, anthelmintic treatment, the use of controlled release devices (capsules) for anthelmintic delivery and daily meteorological records to determine the development and survival of infective larvae (L3) on pasture. Evolution of drug resistance was determined by a simple genetic system which allowed for up to three genes, each with two alleles, to give a maximum of 27 genotypes associated with one drug or three genotypes for each of three drugs. The model was validated against egg counts, L3 counts on pasture and host mortalities observed in a grazing trial, however, aspects of the model such as the development of drug resistance and use of the model in a variety of climatic zones have yet to be tested against field observations. The model was used to examine the impact of grazing management and capsule use on anthelmintic resistance and sheep production over 20 years using historical weather data. Predictions indicated that grazing management can play a dominant role in parasite control and that capsule use will reduce sheep mortalities and production losses, and in some circumstances will not cause a substantial increase in anthelmintic resistance for up to 5 years.