| Literature DB >> 22745755 |
Liina Voutilainen1, Sakeri Savola, Eva Riikka Kallio, Juha Laakkonen, Antti Vaheri, Olli Vapalahti, Heikki Henttonen.
Abstract
Intensive management of Fennoscandian forests has led to a mosaic of woodlands in different stages of maturity. The main rodent host of the zoonotic Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), a species that can be found in all woodlands and especially mature forests. We investigated the influence of forest age structure on PUUV infection dynamics in bank voles. Over four years, we trapped small mammals twice a year in a forest network of different succession stages in Northern Finland. Our study sites represented four forest age classes from young (4 to 30 years) to mature (over 100 years) forests. We show that PUUV-infected bank voles occurred commonly in all forest age classes, but peaked in mature forests. The probability of an individual bank vole to be PUUV infected was positively related to concurrent host population density. However, when population density was controlled for, a relatively higher infection rate was observed in voles trapped in younger forests. Furthermore, we found evidence of a "dilution effect" in that the infection probability was negatively associated with the simultaneous density of other small mammals during the breeding season. Our results suggest that younger forests created by intensive management can reduce hantaviral load in the environment, but PUUV is common in woodlands of all ages. As such, the Fennoscandian forest landscape represents a significant reservoir and source of hantaviral infection in humans.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2012 PMID: 22745755 PMCID: PMC3380007 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0039452
Source DB: PubMed Journal: PLoS One ISSN: 1932-6203 Impact factor: 3.240
Figure 1Numbers of small mammals (A) and Puumala hantavirus prevalence (B) in four forest succession stages.
a = 100+; b = 25–30; c = 10–15; d = 4–8 years after planting.
Figure 2Differentiation between Puumala hantavirus infection and maternal antibodies.
Predicted probability (solid line) with 95% CI (dashed lines) of bank voles captured in fall to carry hantavirus antibodies in relation to body mass. The dotted vertical line indicates the threshold value (14.4 g) above which seropositive animals were treated as genuinely infected. Spheres indicate the numbers of observed data points.
Best supported GLMM analyzing the number of PUUV-infected bank voles in a forest stand.
| Parameter | Estimate (SE) |
| P value |
| Intercept | 2.062 (0.203) | 10.2 | <0.0001 |
| Forest age (25–30 y) | −0.945 (0.285) | −3.3 | 0.00093 |
| Forest age (10–15 y) | −0.621 (0.279) | −2.2 | 0.02577 |
| Forest age (4–8 y) | −1.039 (0.288) | −3.6 | 0.00031 |
| Cycle phase (low) | −2.906 (0.209) | −13.9 | <0.0001 |
| Season (spring) | −1.250 (0.145) | −8.7 | <0.0001 |
Variance attributable to random forest stand effect (40 groups) was 0.23 with standard deviation 0.48 and to random observation-level effect (320 groups) 0.44 with standard deviation 0.66.
Estimates are given on natural logarithmic scale and standard errors of estimates are in parentheses.
Intercept is calculated for a 100+ year stand in the fall of a high density year.
Figure 3Factors contributing to the probability of a bank vole being infected by Puumala hantavirus.
Predicted probabilities of a bank vole being PUUV infected in relation to forest age and concurrent numbers of bank voles on the study site in spring (A) and fall (B), in relation to forest age and concurrent numbers of other small mammals in (C) spring and (D) fall, and in relation to sex and body mass in spring (E) and fall (F). Predicted values represent estimates of fixed effects in Table 2. In A, B, C, and D, black line = 100+; red = 25–30; green = 10–15; blue = 4–8 year forest stand; all predictions are made for a bank vole female with average values of other continuous covariates. In E and F, solid lines indicate predictions for females, and dashed lines for males, both captured from a 100+ year stand with average numbers of bank voles and other small mammals. Spheres indicate the numbers observed, sphere sizes between plots are not comparable. Predictions are only drawn on the range of observations on each forest age class (A,B,C,D) and sex (E,F). Thick lines in A,B,C, and D represent the interquartile ranges of observations.
GLMMs analyzing the probability of a bank vole being PUUV infected in spring and fall.
| Spring season | Fall season | |||||
| Parameter | Estimate | z | P | Estimate | z | P |
| Intercept |
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| Forest age (25–30 y) |
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| Forest age (10–15 y) | 0.547 (0.382) | 1.4 | 0.152 |
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| Forest age (4–8 y) | 0.079 (0.421) | 0.2 | 0.852 | 0.296 (0.223) | 1.3 | 0.185 |
| N of bank voles |
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| N of other small mammals |
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| −0.005 (0.009) | −0.6 | 0.580 |
| Sex (male) |
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| 0.158 (0.122) | 1.3 | 0.196 |
| Weight | 0.015 (0.057) | 0.3 | 0.790 |
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| Sex (male):Weight | 0.076 (0.082) | 0.9 | 0.354 |
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In the spring, variance attributable to random forest pattern effect (39 groups) was 0.10 with standard deviation 0.31 and to random year effect (4 groups) 0.22 with standard deviation 0.47.
In the fall, variance attributable to random forest pattern effect (40 groups) was 0.05 with standard deviation 0.21 and to random year effect (4 groups) 0.00 with standard deviation 0.00.
Estimates are given on logit scale and standard errors of estimates are in parentheses. Significant coefficients are in bold.
Intercept is calculated for a female bank vole of average weight, captured from a 100+ year stand with average numbers of bank voles and other small mammals.