Modeling the transmission dynamics of dengue fever: implications of temperature effects.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the transmission dynamic modeling of dengue fever in subtropical Taiwan by the contributing temperature-dependent entomological parameters of Aedes aegypti. A vector-host transmission model was used to explore the temperature variation of pre-adult mosquito maturation, oviposition rate, adult mosquito death rate, and virus incubation rate in the mosquito. Sensitivity analysis, by transmissible biting rate and the initial mosquito population, was adapted to observe features of the epidemic. This study showed that the entomological parameter estimates are positively correlated with a gradual temperature increase, but not with pre-adult mosquito maturation rate and mosquito death rate, indicating the limitation of pre-adult mosquito maturation rate. Results show that the temperature climate factor was indeed important and influenced the dynamic modeling of the vector-host interaction. Results from our simulation also suggest that the greatest risk of dengue transmission occurs at temperatures equal to 28 °C. In the future, these results could be used for control measures modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis.