Are increases in treatment levels and Alcoholics Anonymous membership large enough to reduce liver cirrhosis rates?

Recent reductions in liver cirrhosis morbidity and mortality rates have been noted in many Western countries. We have previously observed that these declines are associated with increases in treatment for alcohol abuse over regions of Ontario, and increases in Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) membership over American states. One important question is whether the potential impact of treatment and AA membership increases could be large enough to have an impact on population cirrhosis rates. We explore this issue using estimates of the effects of treatment and AA membership, and of the likelihood of alcohol abusers developing cirrhosis, derived from the research literature. The results suggest that increases in treatment and AA membership could indeed have made important contributions to declines in cirrhosis mortality and morbidity in Ontario (1975-82) and the USA (1979-82).