A new scoring system for evaluating the risk of heart failure events in Japanese patients with atrial fibrillation.

Risk stratification for heart failure (HF) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) has not been well established. The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of HF events in patients with AF, consequently developing a new risk-scoring system that stratifies the risk for HF events. In this prospective, single hospital-based cohort, all patients who presented from July 2004 to March 2010 were registered (Shinken Database 2004-2009). Follow-up was maintained by being linked to the medical records or by sending study documents of prognosis. Of the 13,228 patients in the Shinken Database 2004-2009, 1,942 patients with AF were identified. Of the patients with AF, HF events (hospitalization or death from HF) occurred in 147 patients (7.6%) during a mean follow-up period of 776 ± 623 days. After identifying the parameters that were independently associated with the incidence of HF events (coexistence of organic heart diseases, anemia [hemoglobin level <11 g/dl], renal dysfunction [estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min/m(2)], diabetes mellitus, and the use of diuretics), a new scoring system was developed, the H(2)ARDD score (heart diseases = 2 points, anemia = 1 point, renal dysfunction = 1 point, diabetes = 1 point, and diuretic use = 1 point; range 0 to 6 points). This scoring system discriminated the low- and high-risk populations well (incidence in patients scoring 0 and 6 points of 0.2% and 40.8% per patient-year, respectively) and showed high predictive ability (area under the curve 0.840, 95% confidence interval 0.803 to 0.876). In conclusion, the new H(2)ARDD score may help identify the population of patients with AF at high risk for HF events.