| Literature DB >> 22590452 |
Andrew Westbrook1, Bruna S Martins, Tal Yarkoni, Todd S Braver.
Abstract
Maximizing long-run gains often requires taking on some degree of risk, yet decision-makers often exhibit risk aversion (RA), rejecting risky prospects even when these have higher expected value (EV) than safer alternatives. We investigated whether explicit strategy instruction and practice can decrease prepotent RA, and whether aging impacts the efficacy of such an intervention. Participants performed a paired lottery task with options varying in risk and magnitude, both before and after practice with a similar task that encouraged maximization of EV and instruction to use this strategy in risky decisions. In both younger and older adults (OAs), strategy training reduced RA. Although RA was age-equivalent at baseline, larger training effects were observed in younger adults (YAs). These effects were not explained by risk-related (i.e., affective) interference effects or computation ability, but were consistent with a progressive, age-related neglect of the strategy across trials. Our findings suggest that strategy training can diminish RA, but that training efficacy is reduced among OAs, potentially due to goal neglect. We discuss implications for neural mechanisms that may distinguish older and YAs' risky decision-making.Entities:
Keywords: aging; decision-making; goal neglect; risk aversion; strategy training
Year: 2012 PMID: 22590452 PMCID: PMC3349274 DOI: 10.3389/fnins.2012.00068
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Neurosci ISSN: 1662-453X Impact factor: 4.677
Figure 1During instructed and uninstructed gambling and EV training, participants choose between paired offers. In gambling conditions, outcomes are all-or-nothing, while in EV training, they are the product of percentages and points. In the follow-up study, older adults received no-feedback as to the outcome of their choices. The option on the right is highlighted to reflect that the participant has chosen that option and the consequences of that choice are shown to the right of each arrow.
Probability and amount parameters used to generate the list of 96 trials experienced by every participant.
| Probabilities (%) | Magnitudes |
|---|---|
| 50 | 100 |
| 70 | 200 |
| 90 | 300 |
| 100 | 400 |
| 10 | 250 |
| 20 | 500 |
| 40 | 750 |
| 60 | 1000 |
Parameters for each of the 96 trials as well as average rate of risk aversion on each trial both in uninstructed gambling (UG) and instructed gambling (IG), after the training; Trial types include conflict (CF), Non-conflict (NC), for which the high expected value option also has the higher probability, and Equivalence (EQ) trials for which the expected value of the two options is equivalent.
| Trial type | Low-risk | High-risk | Older adults | Younger adults | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prob. | Amt. | Prob. | Amt. | UG | IG | Change in RA | UG | IG | Change in RA | |
| CF | 1 | 100 | 0.2 | 750 | 0.54 | 0.49 | −0.05 | 0.85 | 0.23 | −0.63 |
| CF | 0.7 | 100 | 0.2 | 500 | 0.65 | 0.41 | −0.24 | 0.73 | 0.15 | −0.58 |
| CF | 0.7 | 300 | 0.4 | 750 | 0.68 | 0.47 | −0.21 | 0.73 | 0.18 | −0.55 |
| CF | 0.7 | 100 | 0.4 | 250 | 0.57 | 0.50 | −0.07 | 0.75 | 0.20 | −0.55 |
| CF | 1 | 100 | 0.6 | 250 | 0.57 | 0.55 | −0.03 | 0.75 | 0.21 | −0.54 |
| CF | 0.7 | 100 | 0.1 | 750 | 0.51 | 0.49 | −0.02 | 0.78 | 0.23 | −0.54 |
| CF | 0.7 | 100 | 0.2 | 750 | 0.57 | 0.36 | −0.20 | 0.65 | 0.13 | −0.53 |
| CF | 0.9 | 200 | 0.4 | 500 | 0.57 | 0.41 | −0.17 | 0.68 | 0.15 | −0.53 |
| CF | 0.9 | 200 | 0.2 | 1000 | 0.60 | 0.34 | −0.26 | 0.70 | 0.18 | −0.53 |
| CF | 0.9 | 100 | 0.4 | 250 | 0.53 | 0.51 | −0.02 | 0.85 | 0.35 | −0.50 |
| CF | 0.9 | 100 | 0.2 | 500 | 0.64 | 0.53 | −0.11 | 0.70 | 0.20 | −0.50 |
| CF | 0.7 | 400 | 0.4 | 750 | 0.68 | 0.70 | 0.01 | 0.78 | 0.31 | −0.47 |
| CF | 0.7 | 100 | 0.1 | 1000 | 0.46 | 0.28 | −0.18 | 0.55 | 0.10 | −0.45 |
| CF | 0.9 | 400 | 0.4 | 1000 | 0.53 | 0.38 | −0.15 | 0.50 | 0.08 | −0.43 |
| CF | 0.9 | 100 | 0.2 | 1000 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.01 | 0.48 | 0.05 | −0.43 |
| CF | 0.7 | 200 | 0.2 | 750 | 0.72 | 0.47 | −0.26 | 0.78 | 0.38 | −0.40 |
| CF | 1 | 300 | 0.4 | 1000 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.17 | 0.55 | 0.15 | −0.40 |
| CF | 0.9 | 300 | 0.4 | 1000 | 0.49 | 0.30 | −0.19 | 0.45 | 0.08 | −0.38 |
| CF | 0.9 | 100 | 0.1 | 1000 | 0.59 | 0.48 | −0.11 | 0.50 | 0.13 | −0.38 |
| CF | 0.7 | 200 | 0.2 | 1000 | 0.55 | 0.37 | −0.18 | 0.43 | 0.08 | −0.35 |
| CF | 0.5 | 100 | 0.2 | 750 | 0.44 | 0.65 | 0.21 | 0.45 | 0.10 | −0.35 |
| CF | 0.9 | 300 | 0.6 | 500 | 0.68 | 0.49 | −0.19 | 0.68 | 0.40 | −0.28 |
| CF | 0.5 | 200 | 0.2 | 1000 | 0.50 | 0.33 | −0.17 | 0.38 | 0.10 | −0.28 |
| CF | 0.5 | 100 | 0.2 | 500 | 0.45 | 0.36 | −0.09 | 0.38 | 0.10 | −0.28 |
| CF | 0.5 | 300 | 0.2 | 1000 | 0.50 | 0.46 | −0.04 | 0.35 | 0.08 | −0.28 |
| CF | 0.9 | 300 | 0.4 | 750 | 0.72 | 0.64 | −0.09 | 0.83 | 0.55 | −0.28 |
| CF | 0.9 | 400 | 0.6 | 750 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.01 | 0.73 | 0.46 | −0.26 |
| CF | 0.7 | 200 | 0.6 | 250 | 0.72 | 0.68 | −0.04 | 0.68 | 0.43 | −0.25 |
| CF | 0.7 | 200 | 0.4 | 1000 | 0.43 | 0.24 | −0.19 | 0.28 | 0.03 | −0.25 |
| CF | 0.7 | 400 | 0.4 | 1000 | 0.49 | 0.43 | −0.06 | 0.30 | 0.05 | −0.25 |
| CF | 0.5 | 300 | 0.4 | 500 | 0.40 | 0.28 | −0.12 | 0.28 | 0.08 | −0.20 |
| EQ | 1 | 200 | 0.4 | 500 | 0.76 | 0.72 | −0.03 | 0.88 | 0.68 | −0.20 |
| CF | 0.7 | 400 | 0.6 | 500 | 0.45 | 0.30 | −0.14 | 0.58 | 0.38 | −0.19 |
| EQ | 1 | 300 | 0.6 | 500 | 0.83 | 0.81 | −0.02 | 0.93 | 0.75 | −0.18 |
| EQ | 1 | 100 | 0.2 | 500 | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.01 | 0.88 | 0.70 | −0.18 |
| CF | 0.6 | 250 | 0.5 | 400 | 0.49 | 0.16 | −0.33 | 0.23 | 0.05 | −0.18 |
| EQ | 0.5 | 200 | 0.1 | 1000 | 0.74 | 0.60 | −0.14 | 0.63 | 0.45 | −0.18 |
| EQ | 0.5 | 200 | 0.2 | 500 | 0.68 | 0.81 | 0.13 | 0.85 | 0.68 | −0.17 |
| EQ | 0.6 | 250 | 0.5 | 300 | 0.47 | 0.43 | −0.03 | 0.60 | 0.44 | −0.16 |
| CF | 0.9 | 100 | 0.4 | 1000 | 0.48 | 0.38 | −0.10 | 0.18 | 0.03 | −0.15 |
| EQ | 0.5 | 300 | 0.2 | 750 | 0.68 | 0.76 | 0.08 | 0.75 | 0.62 | −0.13 |
| EQ | 1 | 300 | 0.4 | 750 | 0.78 | 0.85 | 0.07 | 0.90 | 0.77 | −0.13 |
| CF | 0.7 | 300 | 0.6 | 500 | 0.34 | 0.22 | −0.12 | 0.23 | 0.10 | −0.13 |
| NC | 0.9 | 100 | 0.2 | 250 | 0.87 | 0.79 | −0.09 | 0.98 | 0.85 | −0.13 |
| EQ | 1 | 100 | 0.4 | 250 | 0.79 | 0.77 | −0.02 | 0.95 | 0.83 | −0.13 |
| CF | 0.5 | 100 | 0.4 | 250 | 0.47 | 0.34 | −0.13 | 0.23 | 0.13 | −0.10 |
| EQ | 0.5 | 100 | 0.2 | 250 | 0.83 | 0.77 | −0.06 | 0.78 | 0.68 | −0.10 |
| CF | 1 | 400 | 0.6 | 750 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.04 | 0.78 | 0.68 | −0.10 |
| EQ | 1 | 400 | 0.4 | 1000 | 0.66 | 0.79 | 0.13 | 0.73 | 0.63 | −0.10 |
| EQ | 0.5 | 400 | 0.2 | 1000 | 0.70 | 0.64 | −0.06 | 0.65 | 0.58 | −0.08 |
| EQ | 1 | 200 | 0.2 | 1000 | 0.66 | 0.61 | −0.05 | 0.75 | 0.68 | −0.08 |
| NC | 1 | 300 | 0.4 | 500 | 0.91 | 0.89 | −0.03 | 0.98 | 0.90 | −0.08 |
| EQ | 0.5 | 200 | 0.4 | 250 | 0.74 | 0.73 | −0.01 | 0.75 | 0.68 | −0.08 |
| NC | 0.9 | 300 | 0.2 | 1000 | 0.85 | 0.81 | −0.04 | 0.85 | 0.79 | −0.06 |
| NC | 1 | 400 | 0.4 | 500 | 0.87 | 0.83 | −0.04 | 1.00 | 0.95 | −0.05 |
| NC | 1 | 200 | 0.2 | 250 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.95 | −0.05 |
| NC | 1 | 200 | 0.6 | 250 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.95 | −0.05 |
| NC | 0.6 | 500 | 0.5 | 100 | 0.87 | 0.91 | 0.04 | 1.00 | 0.95 | −0.05 |
| NC | 1 | 100 | 0.1 | 500 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 0.09 | 0.98 | 0.93 | −0.05 |
| NC | 0.6 | 750 | 0.5 | 400 | 0.82 | 0.76 | −0.07 | 0.98 | 0.95 | −0.03 |
| NC | 0.9 | 200 | 0.4 | 250 | 0.87 | 0.85 | −0.02 | 0.98 | 0.95 | −0.03 |
| NC | 0.7 | 300 | 0.2 | 500 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.98 | 0.95 | −0.03 |
| NC | 0.7 | 100 | 0.2 | 250 | 0.74 | 0.76 | 0.02 | 0.98 | 0.95 | −0.03 |
| NC | 1 | 100 | 0.1 | 250 | 0.87 | 0.91 | 0.04 | 1.00 | 0.98 | −0.03 |
| NC | 1 | 300 | 0.2 | 750 | 0.81 | 0.87 | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.98 | −0.03 |
| NC | 1 | 400 | 0.6 | 500 | 0.87 | 0.96 | 0.09 | 0.98 | 0.95 | −0.03 |
| EQ | 1 | 100 | 0.1 | 1000 | 0.70 | 0.81 | 0.11 | 0.75 | 0.73 | −0.03 |
| CF | 0.5 | 200 | 0.4 | 1000 | 0.37 | 0.11 | −0.26 | 0.05 | 0.03 | −0.03 |
| NC | 1 | 200 | 0.2 | 750 | 0.79 | 0.76 | −0.03 | 0.95 | 0.93 | −0.02 |
| NC | 0.9 | 400 | 0.4 | 750 | 0.85 | 0.89 | 0.04 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.00 |
| NC | 0.9 | 200 | 0.2 | 750 | 0.85 | 0.83 | −0.02 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.00 |
| NC | 0.9 | 400 | 0.2 | 500 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.02 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| NC | 1 | 400 | 0.1 | 1000 | 0.85 | 0.87 | 0.02 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.00 |
| NC | 0.7 | 400 | 0.1 | 250 | 0.93 | 0.96 | 0.02 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| NC | 1 | 400 | 0.4 | 750 | 0.85 | 0.89 | 0.04 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.00 |
| NC | 1 | 300 | 0.2 | 250 | 0.91 | 0.96 | 0.04 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.00 |
| NC | 1 | 300 | 0.1 | 750 | 0.78 | 0.89 | 0.12 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| NC | 0.7 | 300 | 0.4 | 500 | 0.82 | 0.83 | 0.01 | 0.80 | 0.83 | 0.02 |
| NC | 0.9 | 300 | 0.4 | 500 | 0.89 | 0.77 | −0.13 | 0.90 | 0.93 | 0.03 |
| NC | 0.9 | 400 | 0.6 | 500 | 0.89 | 0.81 | −0.09 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.03 |
| NC | 0.5 | 400 | 0.1 | 250 | 0.87 | 0.79 | −0.09 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.03 |
| NC | 0.7 | 200 | 0.1 | 1000 | 0.87 | 0.83 | −0.04 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.03 |
| NC | 0.9 | 300 | 0.6 | 250 | 0.81 | 0.83 | 0.02 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.03 |
| NC | 0.7 | 300 | 0.6 | 250 | 0.79 | 0.81 | 0.02 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.03 |
| NC | 0.7 | 400 | 0.1 | 500 | 0.77 | 0.79 | 0.02 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.03 |
| NC | 0.9 | 200 | 0.6 | 250 | 0.77 | 0.83 | 0.06 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.03 |
| NC | 0.6 | 1000 | 0.5 | 100 | 0.85 | 0.96 | 0.11 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.03 |
| NC | 0.9 | 200 | 0.1 | 500 | 0.81 | 0.74 | −0.07 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 0.05 |
| NC | 0.9 | 200 | 0.1 | 750 | 0.85 | 0.83 | −0.02 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 0.05 |
| NC | 0.5 | 400 | 0.2 | 750 | 0.83 | 0.82 | −0.01 | 0.88 | 0.93 | 0.05 |
| NC | 0.5 | 300 | 0.1 | 250 | 0.89 | 0.93 | 0.04 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 0.05 |
| NC | 1 | 100 | 0.1 | 750 | 0.87 | 0.96 | 0.09 | 0.85 | 0.95 | 0.10 |
| NC | 0.9 | 100 | 0.1 | 750 | 0.78 | 0.89 | 0.11 | 0.88 | 0.98 | 0.10 |
| EQ | 0.5 | 100 | 0.1 | 500 | 0.64 | 0.71 | 0.07 | 0.55 | 0.68 | 0.13 |
| NC | 0.5 | 200 | 0.1 | 750 | 0.79 | 0.89 | 0.11 | 0.75 | 0.95 | 0.20 |
| NC | 0.7 | 100 | 0.1 | 500 | 0.87 | 0.85 | −0.02 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.23 |
*Change in RA refers to the change in the frequency of selecting the high probability option, which, during conflict trials, was the operational measure of RA in our study.
Figure 2Influence of age and EV-strategy training and instruction on average rate of RA. Strategy practice and instruction reduces RA but less so among older adults.
Multiple regression of standardized, logit-transformed proportion of high probability choices among .
| Term | β | SE | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hi Prob | 0.20 | 0.04 | 4.68 | <0.01 |
| ΔEV | 0.69 | 0.04 | 15.96 | <0.01 |
| Block | −0.26 | 0.04 | −6.22 | <0.01 |
| ΔEV × block | 0.21 | 0.04 | 4.97 | <0.01 |
| Hi Prob × block | −0.01 | 0.04 | −0.20 | 0.84 |
Trial-level predictors were .
Multiple regression of the standardized, logit-transformed proportion of high probability choices on 96 independent trials in the instructed gambling block by .
| Term | β | SE | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hi Prob | 0.17 | 0.05 | 3.69 | <0.01 |
| ΔEV | 0.70 | 0.05 | 14.46 | <0.01 |
| Age | 0.15 | 0.05 | 3.31 | <0.01 |
| ΔEV × age | −0.30 | 0.05 | −6.47 | <0.01 |
| Hi Prob × age | −0.04 | 0.05 | −0.80 | 0.43 |
Trial-level parameters were .
Hierarchical regression analysis of alternative explanations of relatively higher RA among older adults in instructed gambling including EV-selection ability and probability-based selection bias.
| β | adj | Δ | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (uninstructed) RA | 0.26 | 0.11 | 2.46* | 0.07 | – |
| EV-computation ability (EV-training block accuracy) | 0.53 | 0.09 | 5.82** | 0.32 | 0.25** |
| Probability-based selection bias (EQ high-probability choice) | 0.35 | 0.08 | 4.11** | 0.43 | 0.11** |
| Age | 0.86 | 0.15 | 5.73** | 0.59 | 0.16** |
*.
The dependent variable is the proportion of RA choices on conflict trials in instructed gambling across both age groups. All proportion data is logit-transformed then standardized. Age is dummy coded (−1/1 for younger/older adults).
Figure 3Correlation of average RA rate and trial number for conflict trials in instructed gambling. Significant positive correlations obtain for older adults (OA) but not younger adults (YA), suggesting a goal-neglect effect among OA only. That the positive correlation obtains for OA under both feedback and no-feedback conditions implies that a passive process like goal neglect is a better explanation of the correlations than active interference by affective responses to negative feedback.