OBJECTIVE: To develop and evaluate a risk score to predict people at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes in Pakistan. METHODOLOGY: Cross sectional data regarding primary prevention of diabetes in Pakistan. Diabetes risk score was developed by using simple parameters namely age, waist circumference, and family history of diabetes. Odds ratios of the model were used to assign a score value for each variable and the diabetes risk score was calculated as the sum of those scores. RESULTS: We externally validated the score using two data from 1264 subjects and 856 subjects aged 25 years and above from two separate studies respectively. Validating this score using the first data from the second screening study gave an area under the receive operator characteristics curve [AROC] of 0.758. A cut point of 4 had a sensitivity of 47.0% and specificity of 88% and in the second data AROC is 0.7 with 44% sensitivity and 89% specificity. CONCLUSIONS: A simple diabetes risk score, based on a set of variables can be used for the identification of high risk individuals for early intervention to delay or prevent type 2 diabetes in Pakistani population.
OBJECTIVE: To develop and evaluate a risk score to predict people at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes in Pakistan. METHODOLOGY: Cross sectional data regarding primary prevention of diabetes in Pakistan. Diabetes risk score was developed by using simple parameters namely age, waist circumference, and family history of diabetes. Odds ratios of the model were used to assign a score value for each variable and the diabetes risk score was calculated as the sum of those scores. RESULTS: We externally validated the score using two data from 1264 subjects and 856 subjects aged 25 years and above from two separate studies respectively. Validating this score using the first data from the second screening study gave an area under the receive operator characteristics curve [AROC] of 0.758. A cut point of 4 had a sensitivity of 47.0% and specificity of 88% and in the second data AROC is 0.7 with 44% sensitivity and 89% specificity. CONCLUSIONS: A simple diabetes risk score, based on a set of variables can be used for the identification of high risk individuals for early intervention to delay or prevent type 2 diabetes in Pakistani population.