Multiple stumbles: a risk factor for falls in community-dwelling elderly. A prospective study.

To better understand risk factors for falls among community-dwelling elderly, we analyzed data from a sample of elderly Medicare beneficiaries interviewed in 1987 and a year later. Demographic, social, medical, and functional information were obtained by telephone interviews with 736 subjects (68% women) whose average age was 76.5 (range, 65-99). At baseline, 63 subjects reported a fall and 67 reported two or more stumbles without a fall in the past month. At the second interview follow-up information on falls in the past year was obtained on 586 subjects. One hundred twenty-seven (22%) subjects reported one or more falls. Baseline risk factors that were independent predictors of a fall at the second interview included two or more stumbles (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 2.3, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-4.5), one or more falls (AOR 5.9, 95% CI 2.9-12.2), having spent 4 or more days in bed in the past month (AOR 7.7, 95% CI 1.9-31.0), and self-reported declining health status (AOR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.5). Falls and stumbles are prevalent among community-dwelling elderly. After controlling for covariates, we found subjects who reported two or more stumbles in the past month are at increased risk for a fall in the following year.