Economic impact of paclitaxel shortage in patients with newly diagnosed ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the potential economic impact of a paclitaxel drug shortage in patients with newly diagnosed, untreated ovarian cancer.
METHODS: A modified Markov state transition model with a 6 cycle time horizon compared two scenarios: (1) Standard treatment (STD): paclitaxel 175 mg/m2/carboplatin AUC 5 × 6 cycles; (2) Paclitaxel drug shortage (DS): docetaxel 75 mg/m2/carboplatin AUC 5 × 6 cycles. Adverse events, quality of life, and costs of chemotherapy, neuropathy, febrile neutropenia, and anemia were incorporated. Key assumptions: (1) Costs and consequences were assigned only to grade 2+ neuropathy, febrile neutropenia, and grade 3-4 anemia; (2) Grade 2+ neuropathy prompted a switch from paclitaxel/carboplatin to docetaxel/carboplatin or from docetaxel/carboplatin to carboplatin alone; (3) Febrile neutropenia resulted in inpatient hospitalization followed by G-CSF prophylaxis.
RESULTS: The mean cost of 6 cycles of chemotherapy was $4939 in the STD and $16,107 in the DS scenario, for a cost difference of $11,168 per patient over 6 cycles of treatment. STD was the dominant strategy (less expensive and more effective than the drug shortage scenario). In sensitivity analysis, DS was more costly over a wide range of clinical estimates in each arm. A drug shortage that affects approximately 50% of women initiating chemotherapy is expected to impact 779 women and cost third party payers an additional $8,699,872 monthly.
CONCLUSIONS: Our model indicates that chemotherapy drug shortages can have a significant negative impact on the average cost of primary treatment for ovarian cancer and have the potential to negatively impact health system costs.