Effect of including genetic progress in milk yield on evaluating the use of sexed semen and other reproduction strategies in a dairy herd.

The objective of this study was to explore the importance of including genetic progress in milk yield when evaluating different reproductive strategies in a dairy herd by simulation modeling. The model used in this study was SimHerd V, a dynamic and mechanistic Monte Carlo simulation model of a dairy herd including young stock. A daily increasing trend describing genetic milk yield potential of the sire population was included in the model. The inaccuracy of assuming that replacement heifers have the same (milk yield) potential as the cows present in the herd was hereby dealt with. Improving estrus detection rate from 0.45 to 0.80 increased gross margin (GM) per cow-year by €20 when genetic progress was not included in the model. When genetic progress was included in the model, then the same improvement in estrus detection decreased the GM per cow-year by €7.4. This reduced effect was explained by a lower replacement rate in consequence of the improved estrus detection and thereby a slower genetic progress in the herd. There was a reduced effect of including genetic progress on GM when surplus heifers were sold selectively based on breeding values. Repeated insemination with sexed semen on the superior half of all heifers reduced GM by €8 per cow-year when genetic progress was not included and increased the GM by €16 per cow-year when genetic progress was included in the model. Including genetic progress reduced the losses caused by lower conception and estrus detection rates and had a minimal effect with regard to postponing first insemination. This study has proven that it is important to include genetic progress in decisions on reproduction strategies in a dairy herd.