Cancer incidence and soil arsenic exposure in a historical gold mining area in Victoria, Australia: a geospatial analysis.

Soil and mine waste around historical gold mining sites may have elevated arsenic concentrations. Recent evidence suggests some systemic arsenic absorption by residents in the goldfields region of Victoria, Australia. Victorian Cancer Registry and geochemical data were accessed for an ecological geographical correlation study, 1984-2003. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing was applied when estimating standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) for cancers in 61 statistical local areas. The derived soil arsenic exposure metric ranged from 1.4 to 1857 mg/kg. Spatial autoregressive modelling detected increases in smoothed SIRs for all cancers of 0.05 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.02-0.08) and 0.04 (0.01-0.07) per 2.7-fold increase in the natural log-transformed exposure metric for males and females, respectively, in more socioeconomically disadvantaged areas; for melanoma in males (0.05 (0.01-0.08) adjusted for disadvantage) and females (0.05 (0.02-0.09) in disadvantaged areas). Excess risks were estimated for all cancers (relative risk 1.21 (95% CI, 1.15-1.27) and 1.08 (1.03-1.14)), and melanoma (1.52 (1.25-1.85) and 1.29 (1.08-1.55)), for males and females, respectively, in disadvantaged areas in the highest quintile of the exposure metric relative to the lowest. Our findings suggest small but significant increases in past cancer risk associated with increasing soil arsenic in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas and demonstrate the robustness of this geospatial approach.