OBJECTIVE: To establish the natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) over 14 years in a community-based cohort. METHODS: We examined women from the Chingford Women's Study, a community-based cohort followed up for more than 14 years. We selected women for whom bilateral radiographs of the knees (with the legs in full extension) were obtained at approximately 5-year intervals. Radiographs were scored for OA in a blinded manner, using Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grades. Descriptive statistics and odds ratios (ORs) were used to compare the incidence, worsening, and progression of radiographic knee OA. RESULTS: A complete radiography series was available for 561 of the original 1,003 subjects enrolled in the study. The median age of these subjects at baseline was 53 years (interquartile range 48-58 years). At baseline, 13.7% of the subjects had radiographic knee OA (K/L grade≥2) in at least one knee, and the prevalence increased to 47.8% by year 15. The annual cumulative incidence of radiographic knee OA was 2.3% between baseline and year 15. The annual rates of disease progression and worsening between baseline and year 15 were 2.8% and 3.0%, respectively. Subjects with a K/L grade of 1 at baseline were more likely to experience worsening by year 15 compared with subjects with a baseline grade of 0 (OR 4.5, 95% confidence interval 2.7-7.4). CONCLUSION: This is the longest natural history study of radiographic knee OA to date. The results showed relatively low rates for the incidence and progression of radiographic knee OA; more than half of all subjects had no radiographic evidence of knee OA over a 15-year period of time. Subjects with a baseline K/L grade of 1 were more likely than subjects with other baseline K/L grades to experience worsening of knee OA.
OBJECTIVE: To establish the natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) over 14 years in a community-based cohort. METHODS: We examined women from the Chingford Women's Study, a community-based cohort followed up for more than 14 years. We selected women for whom bilateral radiographs of the knees (with the legs in full extension) were obtained at approximately 5-year intervals. Radiographs were scored for OA in a blinded manner, using Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grades. Descriptive statistics and odds ratios (ORs) were used to compare the incidence, worsening, and progression of radiographic knee OA. RESULTS: A complete radiography series was available for 561 of the original 1,003 subjects enrolled in the study. The median age of these subjects at baseline was 53 years (interquartile range 48-58 years). At baseline, 13.7% of the subjects had radiographic knee OA (K/L grade≥2) in at least one knee, and the prevalence increased to 47.8% by year 15. The annual cumulative incidence of radiographic knee OA was 2.3% between baseline and year 15. The annual rates of disease progression and worsening between baseline and year 15 were 2.8% and 3.0%, respectively. Subjects with a K/L grade of 1 at baseline were more likely to experience worsening by year 15 compared with subjects with a baseline grade of 0 (OR 4.5, 95% confidence interval 2.7-7.4). CONCLUSION: This is the longest natural history study of radiographic knee OA to date. The results showed relatively low rates for the incidence and progression of radiographic knee OA; more than half of all subjects had no radiographic evidence of knee OA over a 15-year period of time. Subjects with a baseline K/L grade of 1 were more likely than subjects with other baseline K/L grades to experience worsening of knee OA.
Authors: Guangju Zhai; Xianbang Sun; Edward W Randell; Ming Liu; Na Wang; Irina Tolstykh; Proton Rahman; James Torner; Cora E Lewis; Michael C Nevitt; Ali Guermazi; Frank Roemer; David T Felson Journal: J Rheumatol Date: 2020-05-01 Impact factor: 4.666
Authors: Cesar Garriga; Maria T Sánchez-Santos; Andrew Judge; Deborah Hart; Tim Spector; Cyrus Cooper; Nigel K Arden Journal: Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken) Date: 2020-01 Impact factor: 4.794
Authors: Hans Liebl; Gabby Joseph; Michael C Nevitt; Nathan Singh; Ursula Heilmeier; Karupppasamy Subburaj; Pia M Jungmann; Charles E McCulloch; John A Lynch; Nancy E Lane; Thomas M Link Journal: Ann Rheum Dis Date: 2014-03-10 Impact factor: 19.103
Authors: Louise B Murphy; Susan Moss; Barbara T Do; Charles G Helmick; Todd A Schwartz; Kamil E Barbour; Jordan Renner; William Kalsbeek; Joanne M Jordan Journal: Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken) Date: 2016-01 Impact factor: 4.794
Authors: Cyrus Cooper; Jonathan D Adachi; Thomas Bardin; Francis Berenbaum; Bruno Flamion; Helgi Jonsson; John A Kanis; Franz Pelousse; Willem F Lems; Jean-Pierre Pelletier; Johanne Martel-Pelletier; Susanne Reiter; Jean-Yves Reginster; René Rizzoli; Olivier Bruyère Journal: Curr Med Res Opin Date: 2013-04-17 Impact factor: 2.580
Authors: Julie E Davis; Robert J Ward; James W MacKay; Bing Lu; Lori Lyn Price; Timothy E McAlindon; Charles B Eaton; Mary F Barbe; Grace H Lo; Matthew S Harkey; Jeffrey B Driban Journal: Rheumatology (Oxford) Date: 2019-03-01 Impact factor: 7.580