Using available information to assess the potential effects of climate change on vegetation in the High Arctic: north Billjefjorden, central Spitsbergen (Svalbard).

We review the available data that can be used to assess the potential impact of climate change on vegetation, and we use central Spitsbergen, Svalbard, as a model location for the High Arctic. We used two sources of information: recent and short-term historical records, which enable assessment on scales of particular plant communities and the landscape over a period of decades, and palynological and macrofossil analyses, which enable assessment on time scales of hundreds and thousands of years and on the spatial scale of the landscape. Both of these substitutes for standardized monitoring revealed stability of vegetation, which is probably attributable to the harsh conditions and the distance of the area from sources of diaspores of potential new incomers. The only evident recent vegetation changes related to climate change are associated with succession after glacial retreats. By establishing a network of permanent plots, researchers will be able to monitor immigration of new species from diversity 'hot spots' and from an abandoned settlement nearby. This will greatly enhance our ability to understand the effects of climate change on vegetation in the High Arctic.