Population-based analysis of inpatient vascular procedures and predicting future workload and implications for training.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to analyze the trend in inpatient vascular procedures in the United States over the past decade and predict the future demand for vascular surgeons.
METHODS: The Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Nationwide Inpatient Sample was queried to determine the weighted national estimates of inpatient vascular procedures performed on adult patients (age ≥ 18) between 1997 and 2008. Using population estimates from the United States Census Bureau, the per capita rates of inpatient procedures were calculated for age-specific groups (18-64 years, 65-84 years, and ≥ 85 years). The change in per capita rates over the past decade along with population forecasts were used to predict future workload.
RESULTS: There was a net increase of 22% from 971,046 inpatient vascular procedures for all adults in 1997 to 1,188,332 in 2008. During the same time period, the adult population increased by 16% from 198 to 230 million. The age-stratified per capita rates of all vascular procedures were +21% for age 18 to 64; -4% for age 65 to 84; and +18% for age ≥ 85. This resulted in a net increase of 5% (490 to 515 procedures per 100,000 capita) in the per capita rate for all adults. Based on the assumption that trends in age-specific rates remain constant, there is a predicted inpatient workload increase (compared to 2008) of 18% by 2015, 34% by 2020, and 72% by 2030. The vascular workload is predicted to more than double by the year 2040.
CONCLUSIONS: Despite a conservative approach of using a population-based analysis of only inpatient procedures, there is a dramatic increase in the predicted vascular workload for the future. The vascular surgery training process will need to adapt to ensure an adequate number of fellowship-trained vascular surgeons is available to provide quality vascular care in the future.