Impact of genomic selection of AI dairy sires on their likely utilization and methods to estimate fertility: a paradigm shift.

Breeding of dairy cattle is undergoing a paradigm shift to genomic selection of potential sires and dams. This undoubtedly will affect how bulls are managed in an artificial insemination (AI) center and impact methods to estimate their 'fertility'. Our goal is to help decision-makers understand the contents of a straw of semen, current estimates of sire fertility, and how estimates might evolve in a genomic era. Sire fertility is estimated from outcome (pregnant or not) after 300 to > 2,000 inseminations and reported in units (U) as a sire's deviation from a population (> 500 bulls) average pregnancy rate (PR). Too often users do not recognize that imprecision of an estimate encompasses a 3-U range, or more. 'True fertility' of the sire whose semen is inseminated influences outcome far less than 'true fertility' of each female and a myriad of microenvironment and management factors. Further, AI centers discard substandard collections and intentionally adjust number of sperm per straw so that differences in pregnancy rates achieved by different sires are minimized! For > 80% of Holstein bulls, estimated 'sire conception rates' are within a 5.4-U range. In the future, most sires will be 15 to 40 mo old and services will accumulate at > 1,000/mo. Estimated sire conception rates still will be a deviation from the population mean, but should be based on records for the most recent 6 or 12 mo, rather than 48 or 60 mo. Repeated 'snap shots' every 2 mo would allow AI centers to adjust number of sperm per AI straw from genomic-sires in a timely manner, to maintain high pregnancy rates, and to meet market demands with sires producing ∼40% as many sperm as mature 'proven sires' of yesteryear.