Spatio-temporal patterning of small area low birth weight incidence and its correlates: a latent spatial structure approach.

Low birth weight (LBW) defined as infant weight at birth of less than 2500 g is a useful health outcome for exploring spatio-temporal variation and the role of covariates. LBW is a key measure of population health used by local, national and international health organizations. Yet its spatio-temporal patterns and their dependence structures are poorly understood. In this study we examine the use of flexible latent structure models for the analysis of spatio-temporal variation in LBW. Beyond the explanatory capabilities of well-known predictors, we observe spatio-temporal effects, which are not directly observable using conventional modeling approaches. Our analysis shows that for county-level counts of LBW in Georgia and South Carolina the proportion of black population is a positive risk factor while high-income is a negative risk factor. Two dominant residual temporal components are also estimated. Finally our proposed method provides a better goodness-of-fit to these data than the conventional space–time models.