Endemic sheep scab: risk factors and the behaviour of upland sheep flocks.

Since the deregulation of sheep scab in 1992, the number of scab outbreaks per year in the UK has increased rapidly; there has been an estimated 60-fold increase in outbreak incidence between 1992 and 2007. How best to focus management or eradication efforts has therefore been an issue of ongoing debate. Previous work has shown that scab outbreaks occur repeatedly on some farms whereas others never or rarely experience outbreaks. Here, to consider why this pattern occurs, and to quantify the risk of scab associated with different husbandry practices, face-to-face interviews with farmers at 16, randomly selected, repeat-outbreak farms and 16 matched farms with no or little history of scab over the previous 10 years, were used to identify associated risk factors. This showed that farms using common grazing were at significantly higher risk of infestation than farms not using common grazing, as were farms that had direct contact with neighbours' sheep and that had neighbours with scab. To further demonstrate the risk of common grazing, a survey of sheep on one common in south Wales showed that there was significant mixing of sheep from three farms, highlighting the potential for scab transmission between flocks. Common grazing, associated with upland regions, would appear to be the largest single obstacle to effective national scab control in the UK. The results suggest that a cost-effective approach to scab control may be to consider upland and lowland farms as separate epidemiological systems, with upland regions requiring a co-ordinated, systematic approach to achieve any significant management of the problem. In contrast, on lowland farms outbreaks are already largely contained effectively through good biosecurity and treated on a case-by-case basis if they occur.