Quantifying secondary pest outbreaks in cotton and their monetary cost with causal-inference statistics.

Secondary pest outbreaks occur when the use of a pesticide to reduce densities of an unwanted target pest species triggers subsequent outbreaks of other pest species. Although secondary pest outbreaks are thought to be familiar in agriculture, their rigorous documentation is made difficult by the challenges of performing randomized experiments at suitable scales. Here, we quantify the frequency and monetary cost of secondary pest outbreaks elicited by early-season applications of broad-spectrum insecticides to control the plant bug Lygus spp. (primarily L. hesperus) in cotton grown in the San Joaquin Valley, California, USA. We do so by analyzing pest-control management practices for 969 cotton fields spanning nine years and 11 private ranches. Our analysis uses statistical methods to draw formal causal inferences from nonexperimental data that have become popular in public health and economics, but that are not yet widely known in ecology or agriculture. We find that, in fields that received an early-season broad-spectrum insecticide treatment for Lygus, 20.2% +/- 4.4% (mean +/- SE) of late-season pesticide costs were attributable to secondary pest outbreaks elicited by the early-season insecticide application for Lygus. In 2010 U.S. dollars, this equates to an additional $6.00 +/- $1.30 (mean +/- SE) per acre in management costs. To the extent that secondary pest outbreaks may be driven by eliminating pests' natural enemies, these figures place a lower bound on the monetary value of ecosystem services provided by native communities of arthropod predators and parasitoids in this agricultural system.