Status of National Family Planning Programmes of Developing Countries in relation to demographic targets.

Abstract Having arisen within the context of social and economic development plans, demographic targets associated with family planning programmes in developing countries stipulate levels deemed desirable or necessary to implement economic goals. Since an optimum fertility path for economic development is open to conjecture, targets tend to be vague or arbitrary, and generally imply a fertility decline that goes beyond family limitation based on health considerations. While on the one hand, programme administrators have assumed responsibility for these targets, on the other hand they have structured their programmes toward health, not demographic, goals. As a result, they have minimized rather tham maximized the contribution of the programmes to the targets. of the 24 countries with programmes designed to reduce birth rates, the demographic variable is on target in seven; in six, review is premature; five cannot be evaluated because targets are non-quantifiable or vital data are too uncertain; and in six, including India and Pakistan, progress has been poor, at least in relation to targets. The demographic target is only one of many models and techniques for programme evaluation, although many require data not often available in developing countries. An estimate of births averted based directly on programme activities is not only complex but speculative. However, in contrast to the target criterion, cost benefit analyses involving the estimated return for an averted birth indicate that the programmes are a highly profitable investment.