Prediction of delayed graft function by means of a novel web-based calculator: a single-center experience.

Renal failure persisting after renal transplant is known as delayed graft function (DGF). DGF predisposes the graft to acute rejection and increases the risk of graft loss. In 2010, Irish et al. developed a new model designed to predict DGF risk. This model was used to program a web-based DGF risk calculator, which can be accessed via http://www.transplantcalculator.com . The predictive performance of this score has not been tested in a different population. We analyzed 342 deceased-donor adult renal transplants performed in our hospital. Individual and population DGF risk was assessed using the web-based calculator. The area under the ROC curve to predict DGF was 0.710 (95% CI 0.653-0.767, p < 0.001). The "goodness-of-fit" test demonstrates that the DGF risk was well calibrated (p = 0.309). Graft survival was significantly better for patients with a lower DGF risk (5-year survival 71.1% vs. 60.1%, log rank p = 0.036). The model performed well with good discrimination ability and good calibration to predict DGF in a single transplant center. Using the web-based DGF calculator, we can predict the risk of developing DGF with a moderate to high degree of certainty only by using information available at the time of transplantation. ©Copyright 2011 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.