Staphylococcus aureus infection following nasal colonization: an approach to rapid risk stratification in a university healthcare system.

Staphylococcus aureus carriage increases the risk of infection. Demographic and microbiological data from adult patients with nasal S. aureus carriage were analysed in order to define effect modifiers of this association. Predictors for growth of S. aureus from clinical cultures were identified in a case-control study using bivariate and multi-variate logistic regression analysis. Between 1 January 2005 and 1 April 2009, 645 patients with nasal S. aureus colonization and documented follow-up of ≥90 days were identified; 159 (25%) patients were found to carry meticillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA). The median age of patients was 58 years, and 421 (65%) were male. During the subsequent 90 days, one or more clinical cultures were positive for S. aureus in 131 patients (20%). Multi-variate analysis identified a prior history of any S. aureus positive culture [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-3.8; P=0.0005) as an independent predictor of subsequent S. aureus infection. MRSA colonization was a predictor of infection in patients aged >40 years (aOR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4-4.1; P=0.0004), and even more so in patients aged ≤40 years (aOR 12.4, 95% CI 3.0-51; P=0.0005). Age >40 years was an additional independent risk factor for meticillin-susceptible S. aureus carriers (aOR 3.0, 95% CI 1.2-7.8; P=0.02) but not for MRSA carriers. Preferential screening of patients at high risk for MRSA carriage and subsequent infection, as well as the absence of a universal policy for the use of decolonization regimens, may partly explain the relatively high risk of S. aureus infection in the patient population. MRSA carriers and older patients with recurrent S. aureus positive cultures may gain the greatest benefit from routine decolonization measures.