Including climate change in pest risk assessment: the peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Diptera: Tephritidae).

Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) is one of the most harmful species of Tephritidae. It causes extensive damage in Asia and threatens many countries located along or near the Mediterranean Sea. The climate mapping program, CLIMEX 3.0, and the GIS software, ArcGIS 9.3, were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution of B. zonata. The model predicts that, under current climatic conditions, B. zonata will be able to establish itself throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including some parts of the USA, southern China, southeastern Australia and northern New Zealand. Climate change scenarios for the 2070s indicate that the potential distribution of B. zonata will expand poleward into areas which are currently too cold. The main factors limiting the pest's range expansion are cold, hot and dry stress. The model's predictions of the numbers of generations produced annually by B. zonata were consistent with values previously recorded for the pest's occurrence in Egypt. The ROC curve and the AUC (an AUC of 0.912) were obtained to evaluate the performance of the CLIMEX model in this study. The analysis of this information indicated a high degree of accuracy for the CLIMEX model. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. zonata projected under the climate change scenarios considered in this study suggest that biosecurity authorities should consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. To prevent the introduction and spread of B. zonata, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.