Prediction model for attrition from a combat unit training program.

The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for the attrition rate of soldiers from an 8-month advanced military training program based on physical and psychological factors. Two groups of 59 and 61 healthy, fit young men (18.7 ± 0.7 years) entering a rigorous combat unit training program in the Israeli Defense Forces were recruited to participate in this study. Data on anthropometrics, nutrition, blood measures (chemical and hematological), fitness, and bone quality were collected on the induction day. Psychological questionnaires were completed at 3 time points: baseline--upon entry to basic training (BT), after 2 months, and after 4 months (completion of BT). The data of the 2 groups were pooled together for the analysis and to construct a new prediction model for attrition (Patt) as follows: Patt = 11.20 - 0.87Est(Com4) - 0.72Sc - 0.23%BF; where Est(Com4) is commander appreciation as perceived by the soldier after 4-month BT, Sc is a self-confidence grade, and %BF is the % body fat. The new suggested model successfully predicted 75.3% of subject attrition in the combat unit. We therefore concluded that Special Forces recruits with relatively low body fat percentage (%BF), low self-esteem, and who feel unappreciated by their commander are at a higher dropout risk from a rigorous combat training program.