Cogs in the endless machine: lakes, climate change and nutrient cycles: a review.

Lakes have, rather grandly, been described as sentinels, integrators and regulators of climate change (Williamson et al., Limnol. Oceanogr. 2009; 54: 2273-82). Lakes are also part of the continuum of the water cycle, cogs in a machine that processes water and elements dissolved and suspended in myriad forms. Assessing the changes in the functioning of the cogs and the machine with respect to these substances as climate changes is clearly important, but difficult. Many other human-induced influences, not least eutrophication, that impact on catchment areas and consequently on lakes, have generally complicated the recording of recent change in sediment records and modern sets of data. The least confounded evidence comes from remote lakes in mountain and polar regions and suggests effects of warming that include mobilisation of ions and increased amounts of phosphorus. A cottage industry has arisen in deduction and prediction of the future effects of climate change on lakes, but the results are very general and precision is marred not only by confounding influences but by the complexity of the lake system and the infinite variety of possible future scenarios. A common conclusion, however, is that warming will increase the intensity of symptoms of eutrophication. Direct experimentation, though expensive and still unusual and confined to shallow lake and wetland systems is perhaps the most reliable approach. Results suggest increased symptoms of eutrophication, and changes in ecosystem structure, but in some respects are different from those deduced from comparisons along latitudinal gradients or by inference from knowledge of lake behaviour. Experiments have shown marked increases in community respiration compared with gross photosynthesis in mesocosm systems and it may be that the most significant churnings of these cogs in the earth-air-water machine will be in their influence on the carbon cycle, with possibly large positive feedback effects on warming.