BACKGROUND: In 2001 Liou published a 5-year survival model using CFF Registry data. AIMS: To evaluate its validity in predicting survival in Italian CF patients. METHODS: In a retrospective study on 945 patients, the 9 variables selected by Liou were analyzed, vital status on December 2008 recorded and observed and expected deaths compared. To develop a new model, patients were randomly divided into a derivation (n=475) and a validation sample (n=470). RESULTS: A significant difference was found between observed and expected deaths based on Liou's model (62 vs 94), with a 34% reduction in mortality (p<0.05). A new model (based on FEV1, Staphylococcus aureus and Burkholderia cepacia complex infection, number of pulmonary exacerbations/year) was generated, that correctly predicted survival in the validation sample (31 observed vs 29 expected deaths, p=0.660). CONCLUSIONS: The Liou model did not adequately predict 5-year survival in our CF population that, compared to the one in which it was originally tested, could benefit from 10 years of improvement in treatments and practice patterns. A new generated model, based on only four variables, was more accurate in predicting 5-year survival in Italian CF patients.
BACKGROUND: In 2001 Liou published a 5-year survival model using CFF Registry data. AIMS: To evaluate its validity in predicting survival in Italian CFpatients. METHODS: In a retrospective study on 945 patients, the 9 variables selected by Liou were analyzed, vital status on December 2008 recorded and observed and expected deaths compared. To develop a new model, patients were randomly divided into a derivation (n=475) and a validation sample (n=470). RESULTS: A significant difference was found between observed and expected deaths based on Liou's model (62 vs 94), with a 34% reduction in mortality (p<0.05). A new model (based on FEV1, Staphylococcus aureus and Burkholderia cepacia complex infection, number of pulmonary exacerbations/year) was generated, that correctly predicted survival in the validation sample (31 observed vs 29 expected deaths, p=0.660). CONCLUSIONS: The Liou model did not adequately predict 5-year survival in our CF population that, compared to the one in which it was originally tested, could benefit from 10 years of improvement in treatments and practice patterns. A new generated model, based on only four variables, was more accurate in predicting 5-year survival in Italian CFpatients.
Authors: Patricia J Rodriguez; David L Veenstra; Patrick J Heagerty; Christopher H Goss; Kathleen J Ramos; Aasthaa Bansal Journal: Value Health Date: 2021-12-22 Impact factor: 5.101
Authors: Susanna A McColley; Michael W Konstan; Bonnie W Ramsey; J Stuart Elborn; Michael P Boyle; Claire E Wainwright; David Waltz; Montserrat Vera-Llonch; Gautham Marigowda; John G Jiang; Jaime L Rubin Journal: J Cyst Fibros Date: 2018-08-23 Impact factor: 5.482
Authors: Jaime L Rubin; Lasair O'Callaghan; Christopher Pelligra; Michael W Konstan; Alexandra Ward; Jack K Ishak; Conor Chandler; Theodore G Liou Journal: Ther Adv Respir Dis Date: 2019 Jan-Dec Impact factor: 4.031
Authors: Theodore G Liou; Frederick R Adler; Natalia Argel; Fadi Asfour; Perry S Brown; Barbara A Chatfield; Cori L Daines; Dixie Durham; Jessica A Francis; Barbara Glover; Theresa Heynekamp; John R Hoidal; Judy L Jensen; Ruth Keogh; Carol M Kopecky; Noah Lechtzin; Yanping Li; Jerimiah Lysinger; Osmara Molina; Craig Nakamura; Kristyn A Packer; Katie R Poch; Alexandra L Quittner; Peggy Radford; Abby J Redway; Scott D Sagel; Shawna Sprandel; Jennifer L Taylor-Cousar; Jane B Vroom; Ryan Yoshikawa; John P Clancy; J Stuart Elborn; Kenneth N Olivier; David R Cox Journal: BMC Med Res Methodol Date: 2019-04-26 Impact factor: 4.615